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To: mitch-c who wrote (38621)	10/24/2000 11:16:32 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hyundai begins DRAM fab conversion to increase foundry services Semiconductor Business News (10/24/00, 09:16:07 AM EDT) CHEONGJU, South Korea -- As part of a plan to become a $1 billion supplier of silicon foundry services, Hyundai Electronics Industries Co. Ltd. announced an increase investment in its 0.25-micron capacity for the conversion of a DRAM wafer fab here to logic manufacturing processes. Hyundai has targeted the use of maturing DRAM fabs as a vehicle to become a major player in the foundry arena (see July 14 story). The new investments in Hyundai's Fab 4 here include back-end of line (BEOL) tools for interconnects used in logic devices as well as new deep-ultraviolet (DUV) steppers, said the company. The 8-inch fab is being converted from 64-megabit DRAMs to logic, said Hyundai, which is transferring the memory production to another plant. About half of Fab 4's capacity is capable of 0.35-micron logic services and the other half for 0.25-micron chips. Hyundai said its new 0.25-micron logic capacity is expected to be implemented by the second quarter of 2001. Hyundai said it is pushing ahead with plans to have six wafer fabs to support foundry services in 2001. Two of those fabs will be newly converted DRAM plants, while two other 8-inch frontend facilities were set up earlier for logic foundry production. The two fabs are existing 6-inch foundry plants (one owned by LG Semicon, prior to last year's acquisition, and the other a Hyundai facility). Most of the 6-inch wafer fab capacity is for 0.5-micron processes. The company said its growing foundry operations will be running at a monthly capacity of 90,000 eight-inch equivalent wafers by the end of the year. During interviews with SBN the summer, Hyundai officials said the company was aiming to increase its foundry business by 277% to $400 million in 2000, from about $106 million in 1999. In 2001, the South Korean company intends to increase its silicon foundry revenues by another 88% to $750 million and then reach $1.2 billion in 2002, managers said.

To: mitch-c who wrote (38621)	10/24/2000 2:21:07 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

re: "good news takes things down (expectations met, no future), and bad news drives 'em up (can't get worse ...)", and "percentages are RATIOS, not raw data" Total bookings were down. That's raw data. Nat semi. warned (that's what, the 9th semi to do that, I've lost count). So, the stocks went down on 2 pieces of bad news. Entirely rational and reasonable. The irrationality was the April peak, at a P/S of 12, and the 1996 low, at a P/S of 0.9. At this point, AMAT (at a P/S of 5) is in the upper middle of its longterm valuation range, and is, IMO, approximately fairly valued. However, my experience with this stock is that "fairly valued" is just a very temporary stage, which the stock briefly hits while in the midst of swinging from absurdly undervalued to absurdly overvalued (or vice versa). The interesting question now is: what is going to happen with bookings? The choices are: 1. a modest decline in bookings, and then a prolonged stabilization at high levels. Bookings peaked in the 1.5-2B range in early 1996, and again in late 1997. That was also the level at which bookings stalled for a while in mid/late 1999. This could be considered a natural "landing stage". If bookings were to stabilize at that level, through 2002, the stocks could be hitting new all-time highs in 2001 or 2002. 2. bookings have now turned, and will continue on down, until we have an undershoot, as severe as the previous overshoot. This is the classic pattern. Bookings peaked, this time (if it was the peak, one month-on-month decline does not make a pattern), at a level twice as high as the previous two peaks. The semi industry total profits are not twice as high. Semi-equip bookings have to be supported by semi earnings (not semi sales, not hopes and dreams of gaining market share).