Democratic Party needs seven seats to take reins
JACKIE KOSZCZUK
Herald Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON -- Five years after Rep. Newt Gingrich of Georgia launched his Republican revolution, the Democrats might be poised to retake the House of Representatives.
Several independent analysts who track political contests around the country say the Democrats could win just enough seats -- seven -- to take control by the narrowest of margins.
A big share of the Democrats' bid for control rests in Florida, with observers counting on perhaps two of the following contests turning over Republican seats:
Linda Chapin, Democratic clerk of courts and a former Orange County commissioner, is favored to win the Orlando-based seat of Rep. Bill McCollum, R-Altamonte Springs, who is running for the U.S. Senate. The party is challenging her conservative opponent, Republican Ric Keller, as ``pro-gun.''
State Rep. Elaine Bloom, a longtime legislator from Miami Beach, is giving longtime U.S. Rep. E. Clay Shaw, a Fort Lauderdale Republican, the race of his political career.
Mike Stedem, a Democratic car dealer in Fort Meade, is challenging state Rep. Adam Putnam, a Lakeland Republican, for the open seat of retiring Republican Charlie Canady of Lakeland.
A Democratic House is likely to revive a stalled bill that gives patients the right to sue their HMOs for medical mistakes. Likewise, proposals to create a new prescription drug benefit under Medicare would get top priority, and the House likely would call for a far larger role for the federal government than Republican plans that give private insurers the leading role in providing the new benefit.
LIBERALISM UNLIKELY
But a Democratic House isn't likely to unleash a burst of liberal lawmaking. The Democratic candidates who are in position to grab seats away from Republicans tend to be more conservative or more moderate than their party's leadership.
Rep. Richard A. Gephardt, D-Mo., the current minority leader who could become House speaker if the Democrats prevail, has called for a modest agenda of what he calls ``reasonable, sensible'' measures. In addition to managed care and prescription drugs, the agenda includes increasing federal spending to facilitate smaller class sizes and updated buildings for public schools.
While the predictions all favor the Democrats to varying degrees, the House is likely to remain a divided, politically raucous place no matter which party claims an actual majority.
DISTRACTED LEADER
``Narrow margins give incredible power to any couple of people, which means a party leader can't look at the big vision,'' said Eric Uslaner, a University of Maryland congressional scholar.
``He has to look at the ground to see who's running off the reservation.''
``The House may in fact become more left-leaning, but that does not mean that anyone will be in control,'' Uslaner said.
Democrats also are expected to make gains in the Senate, perhaps picking up as many as three seats, analysts say. But the Democrats are not expected to take control from the Republicans, who have 54 seats to the Democrats' 46.
The predictions of Democratic gains come from several independent political map watchers doing their traditional mid-October status check.
The predictions are especially tantalizing this year because the battle for control of the House is second in drama and significance only to the presidential contest between Republican Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Democratic Vice President Al Gore.
Republicans have been losing seats in every election since the combative Gingrich led them to power in the 1994 election, and they now have just a six-seat majority in the House.
Although the party in the past two years has turned away from much of the confrontational politics and extreme ideology that turned voters off during the years when Gingrich was speaker of the House, Democrats, led by Gephardt, are waging an energetic and well-funded campaign to wrest back control.
SEVEN-SEAT GAIN
If the election were held now, Democrats would make exactly the seven-seat gain they need to win a one-seat majority, according to Congressional Quarterly, an authoritative journal of Capitol Hill news and information. (Numerically, the Democrats need just six seats to get a one-seat majority of 218, but Rep. James Traficant, an Ohio Democrat who is at war with his own party, has threatened to vote with Republicans and give them control of the speaker's chair and key committees.)
In another analysis by Roll Call, an independent daily newspaper that covers Congress, the Democrats would pick up six seats if the election were held today. Charles Cook and Stuart Rothenberg, two longtime independent political analysts, predict that the party will gain between four and nine seats.
All the analysts are hedging, however, because about 15 races remain tossups.
No matter which party prevails, analysts said they expect the margin of control to be among the thinnest in perhaps 70 years. In 1931, there were 220 Republicans, 214 Democrats and one independent in the House.
PRESIDENT'S CLOUT
The occupant of the White House has the greatest impact on legislation, of course.
Both Gore and Bush cast themselves as political centrists, but whoever is elected will feel a gravitational pull to the left if the House switches parties. That could affect issues ranging from healthcare to tax cuts.
For instance, the chairmanship of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee would shift from conservative Rep. Bill Archer of Texas, who has championed numerous business tax breaks, to Rep. Charles Rangel, the gravel-voiced New Yorker who favors targeted tax cuts for despairing urban neighborhoods.
Herald Staff Writer Mark Silva contributed to this report. |
