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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jamok99 who wrote (15738)	10/24/2000 4:48:22 PM
From: porn_start878	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Mhz sells... Given that AMD couldn't get their story across when they had an unequivocally superior product, and that story was simpler, success at this more complex task does seem dubious. McMannis' 'Mhz Sells' (TM) would appear to be the proof of this argument: Of the average computer buyer, Mhz is certainly the most recognized characteristic of a computer. I'd guess their most common definition of Mhz, assuming they're familiar with the term, is that "it means how fast the computer is". I'd be surprised if even 5% of computer buyers even have heard of IPCs or FPUs, or benchmarks So the kind of buyers you describe don't care about "k6", "celeron", "PII", "Athlon", "Duron", "P4"? I don't think so. The kind of dumb customers that only look to MHz will rush on the Duron, which will be between 900 and 1GHz by the end of Q1. And the resellers will encourage them since Duron kicks celeron's ass. The kind of people that will buy p4 in the first half of next year are often more concerned by performance and more educated. It will be a different story when the P4 reach the $1200-$1700 segment in the second half of 2001. AMD will need .13u early in Q3, which is unlikely. Max

To: jamok99 who wrote (15738)	10/25/2000 10:27:46 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

<< You sound pretty pessimistic about this - is this based on your oft-used principle that until a product is actually available for testing/inspection there's little point in speculation, or do you have other concerns about why AMD's future competitiveness is questionable? >> I'm not comfortable at all with how well we'll scale against the p4, but on the other hand, 2001 still looks like a good year to me for AMD just because of the gaps in Intel's lineup. By the time they can close the midrange gap, they'll be fighting a huge war on the laptop and hopefully corporate front. My main concern for stock price is the fact that it's so low now, and it makes me wonder what happens if AMD has 1 bad quarter (bad being relative to past performance, but still much higher eps then say intel). People say the floor will fall out, and I wonder how far it can fall given that the price is already so low. I would have imagined by the time we hit the earnings targets we're hitting that we'd have a pe in the 30s. The things holding back p4 are temporary, but the things holding AMD out of laptops, and low end systems are temporary too. For most of 01, AMD probably owns the low end, mid range, and lap top segments. Most of my real worries about p4 will be answered one way or another once we see some production benchmarks.