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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rarebird who wrote (60092)	10/24/2000 3:25:20 PM
From: Ken Benes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116894

Total capitulation for the following reasons. 1. because of the complexity of the hedging techniques employed by the producers, investors are no longer certain that they will benefit by a rising gold price. 2. the producers thru overproduction, and leasing gold have flooded the market with supply. 3. investors have lost faith in the management of the producers. 4. the volatility associated with the commodities markets have been rung out of gold thru the use of derivatives instruments(selling gold short as it rises above 280 and covering those positions as the price sinks. 5. a strong dollar. 6. an awareness that as gold trades as a commodity the equity prices of the producers will be revalued using lower multiples, and discounting reserves in the ground that may have been leveraged in elaborate derivative positions. Do you need any more. The decline will continue unless and until supply and demand are more in line. This cannot happen until supply contracts. The plan by the producers to peddle jewelry/gold over the internet will not eliminate the oversupply. Ken

To: Rarebird who wrote (60092)	10/24/2000 3:47:33 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116894

What are the XAU Stocks signaling here ? .... how about just the obvious ? That the sector decline broke to new lows at that very opportune time - called Tax Loss Selling Season... it ends at the end of the month for most Funds/Institutions; but can continue untill year end for individuals. I don't think the XAU stocks lead Gold Prices either very often, nor very accurately. Encouragingly; the POG is holding steady into a continual series of new EURO lows; maybe the XAU is reacting more to the Euro's weakness; than the POG strength ? Merely a perfect confluence of events timingwise - new lows right into the end of the fiscal year (Oct) for most mutual funds... Wouldn't be surprised to see a nice snap back rally in November. but; who cares ! - buy 'em all the way down; no reason to jump in with both feet in a full & final entry here ? - average in. Personally; I'm buying each 5 points down in the index; next stop the breech of XAU 40 and I'm hoping to get a chance to buy XAU 30 - literally. Don't worry - be happy ? The US Dollar can not stay at, nor move up from these levels without imploding US Corportate earnings which will trigger a market selloff and a Global Crisis with our neighbors economies. Gold literally has a "straddle" here on the US Dollar. Fundametnally - it will move up on the Dollars weakness; but also since the US Dollar has reached a virtual point of no return in too dangerously stressing the Global Markets on further strength - any significant rise will trigger the next "event" needed to rock the markets - which also can be a POG catalyst. Patience... and slowly, but surely average into any & all XAU weakness here; that's all that is required. Lots of new "Gold Bugs" here fwiw.... I've NEVER owned XAU stocks, or Gold before - but; the sentiment similarities in the stocks AND the commodity itself are "deja vu - all over again" identical to the dark days of $10 Oil, the death of OPEC and a free falling OSX.... and I've been there & done that one.... So; come on down Mr. Xau.... Keep the faith - the reinforcements are arriving fella's (VBG) - and they "aint" your grandfathers gold bugs either fwiw - we see the unsustainability of the Gold Derivative crisis, we know the ESF is running out of fingers to plug holes in the dike; Rubin got while the "getting was good" - but, Greenie got the God complex and thinking he can stabilze & manipulate his way out of this one - aint gonna work. He's backed himself into a Stagflation Trap potentially.... an entire new wave of XAU/Gold investors is coming... While we might not be back for another 20 years; we DO recognize that THIS an a "must" entry point... US Forces now on Threat Com - Delta... Iraqi troops moving West, lots of potential inflection points in the ME into the face of a US Election. Imho; the Republicans & ole GW are gonna walk into another mess. Saddam may just welcome GW into office with an Oil Shock/Embargo that also kills a 2nd bird with one stone - the UN - in it's renogitiation of his Oil Quota's & gee; now he wanted all UN holdings converted out of US Dollars & into Euro's right ? .... Israeli Intel reports for months have mentioned that Saddam has been reportedly hording physical Gold with his Black Market Smuggled Oil Dollars...and the Arabs were heavy Gold buyers on the last Oil Shock & they've got a no brainer hedge against simultaneous falling Oil Prices and a correcting US Dollar - when their US Dollar denominated Oil Receipts go into a major correction upon the exit of peak winter demand heating seasons here in a few months. An earlier post mentioned the the amount of US debt the Arab world holds... let them monetize it & pull out of US Equities... and what do they HAVE to buy as a natural hedge to simultaneous falling crude prices & a US Dollar and as a play upon thier US market exit ? Gold

To: Rarebird who wrote (60092)	10/24/2000 9:44:14 PM
From: Richnorth	Respond to of 116894

An excerpt from a GATA report:- John van Eck has served his Weekly Gold Market Update at The Kiki Table. "The prices of gold mining shares, contrary to the price of gold, have made unexpected sharp declines of approximately 20% since their September highs to new all time lows. In our opinion, this must be the final "washout" or "capitulation" stage of their bear market, which began in 1980. They are extraordinary cheap. Their current prices reflect a theoretical gold price of approximately $ 250. an ounce, a discount of about 8% from market. They almost always have sold at large premiums to the gold price. Perhaps the market has been spooked by the unexpected announcement of several mine closures."