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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40)	10/25/2000 5:44:44 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Respond to of 95415

Donald - need it be said? - gorgeous work. I suppose there's lot's to be derived from all this crunching. The one thing that remains consistently striking is September's position as the nadir in bookings, Btb etc. year after year after year (the SEA crisis of '97 created the only exception). This is especially topical at this very moment since many analysts and individual investors are doing the hand wringing thing...telling us that the Sept. Btb is further proof of the slowing on the industry blah blah blah. Like night follows day, the odds that we're at the absolute end of this 'time-out' of the up leg of the current cycle are exceedingly strong. September has been the bottom for AT LEAST 4 out of the last 5 years and there's no reason, no economic Armageddon on the horizon, to believe this year will be any different.

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (40)	10/25/2000 5:01:37 PM
From: SpecialK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95415

Donald, Gottfried, excellent work with all this data. I notice the book minus ship in post 40. It has been trending down. It bottomed and turned up in December 98 and October 99. at 392, it could go much lower, even below 0, before it turns up. If we see 2 months of flattening at this level, it could turn up by January 2001. The others were good entries into the Sox and its components and the industry. Obviously, AMAT's results in mid-November will give a much looked at forward guidance. I'm amazed at the SOX and its weightings, RMBS, XLNX have greater effect than Intel, TI, and AMAT, NVLS, WOW! phlx.com