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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anonymous who wrote (16921)	10/24/2000 7:32:00 PM
From: Sawtooth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Nortel's Blip Could Burst the Optical Bubble By Scott Moritz Senior Writer thestreet.com 10/24/00 7:05 PM ET Updated from 5:30 p.m. EDT: The networking sector could be in for a walloping come Wednesday. Shares in networking-equipment stalwart Nortel (NT:NYSE - news) plunged in postclose trading Tuesday after third-quarter revenue failed to meet Wall Street's highest expectations. Shares in other optical highfliers followed suit, as Nortel's guidance that growth would slow in 2001 sent air whooshing out of the optical-networking bubble. Analysts said the news of less than phenomenal revenue and prospects for a growth slowdown among optical-equipment makers could pound the companies' pricey shares. But Nortel, noting the underlying strength of its business and shaking off investors' slowdown fears, remained steadfastly bullish, predicting that its customers would boost their spending by 20%-25% for 2001. "The short-term bubble has burst," says analyst David Toung of Argus Research, which hasn't done investment banking for Nortel and rates the stock a buy. "Now we will see a sorting-out with more normal growth." After slipping $3.62, or 5.4%, during regular trading to close at $63.31, Nortel slid to $48.50 in after-hours trading on Island ECN. Being Bullish Nortel, for its part, stood by the strength of its business, which has propelled the stock to more than triple over the last year. Third-quarter earnings jumped to 18 cents a share, excluding certain items, from 11 cents a year ago. Revenue jumped 42% to $7.31 billion in the latest quarter, which left Nortel a bit "light" of revenue expectiations, Toung says. "We are continuing to see strong demand," Nortel CEO John Roth said on a conference call with analysts Tuesday evening. "The market outlook from our perspective continues to look very firm. If anything, we continue to see that capital expenditure on a long-term basis continues to move upward, especially for the customers we serve." The apparent culprit for the postclose selloff in Nortel shares was the revenue shortfall in optical sales. In September, the company had said that $12 billion in optical-equipment sales was possible, but told analysts Tuesday that better than $10 billion was a more accurate figure for the year. Nortel says that during the quarter, its customers began stockpiling its equipment out of fear that the red-hot demand for optical-networking goods would continue to outstrip supply. Because customers don't pay for optical gear until it's installed in an operational network, Nortel shipped far more communications equipment to customers than it was able to record as revenue. "I really view the inventory issue as a good news item because, having restored our intervals back to tradional lead time, there's no longer a need for our customers to hedge what we are going to do," Nortel CEO Roth continued. "And that gives us much greater visibility in terms of how they are deploying the equipment, as opposed to shipping it to warehouses." The Fallout "This will have repercussions further down the supply chain, like [at] JDS and Corning," says analyst Toung of Argus Research. "It requires careful planning as to how much cpacity to bring on line." Accordingly, optical-component leaders JDS Uniphase (JDSU:Nasdaq - news) and Corning (GLW:NYSE - news) were among networking plays taking sharp hits Tuesday evening, as investors bet that the sector won't be able to maintain the growth that has catapulted these stocks to huge gains since 1999. "Nortel's optical is down," says a hedge fund manager who owns Corning. "We don't like to see numbers like that. It's taking down Corning to $86." JDS hit $85 on Island after closing off $6.12 at $95.06 Tuesday afternoon; Corning slid to $86 after closing down $7.94 at $93.50. Given Nortel's continued faith, Tuesday evening's stock moves may soon look like an overreaction. Wednesday will tell, perhaps.

To: Anonymous who wrote (16921)	10/28/2000 1:12:38 AM
From: Anonymous	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

This company just can't find a friend. Today on CNBC they had a woman on who was heading up some fund or family of funds. It was one of those "phone in" segments where people phone in and ask about stocks they own or maybe want to purchase. Some woman from California phoned in and said she had purchased LUCENT back around $62 and wanted to know if, now that it was down in the low $20's should she add to her position to average out, or what? Of course the woman fund manager helped old LUCY along by saying that she wouldn't buy LUCY at this price and recommended that maybe the woman in California should sell her LUCY to offset some gains she may have had during the year. She thought that would make more sense than adding to the woman's position. As LU went buy on the ticker it started sinking almost before the fund manager finished her recommendation. NUTS!......ANON