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Technology Stocks : Nortel Networks (NT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (7527)	10/25/2000 2:55:26 AM
From: Wafa SHIHABI	Respond to of 14638

>If they ship to customers within 80 days, the $11 billion should have already been shipped and it seems to me they're hinting they could possibly ship another $4 billion by the end of Dec. According to my arithmetic that adds to 15B for the year. But we come up short 10 days for the year. I can live with that offsetting cancelations. ))

To: pat mudge who wrote (7527)	10/25/2000 4:25:41 AM
From: rrufff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

As a lurker to this highly intelligent discussion, here is my reaction. First I thought I'd be buying shares of Campbell's Soup as the internet is dead, technology will no longer be hot and we are going back to cans and string to communicate. Seriously, there are very few shorts, relatively, in NT. So a lot of the chest thumping on other threads is premature or just plain bashing. Although there will be some panic dumping and short selling at the open, those who do will be doing so at the low. The few who were smart enough to play this short, and I commend them, have been spreading the FUD pretty well. The key is whether they will profit from it or will they make the same mistake many of us did, in retrospect, by holding long at the top. Looking at NT results in a vacuum leaves one astonished at how such a giant can nimbly move and grow with percentage numbers usually attributable to a start-up. At the beginning of the CC, if one looks at comments here at first, it looked like great numbers. Many were predicting the stock would go up. Then the momo started picking up on any possible negative. The rest is history. So, what does this all mean? Does the market have problems? Are we in a bear market? Is the world collapsing? There are some scenarios that call for the strings and cans and to put one's money under a mattress, or to go buy gold. Personally, I think there is a lot of money around the world. The world wants to invest in the future. The US (and near US for my Canadian friends lol) giants are still the place to be, the safe haven, the leader. NT is now close to a value growth giant. At almost half its peak it represents a HUGE buying opportunity. Panic and margin calls - I've got a feeling that many have been like me. I made big money expanded my margin account, got hit, contracted the account and pretty much sit on cash. I don't have to sell NT tomorrow. I won't sell NT tomorrow. I really can't imagine a new short going out and thinking they are going to make a killing selling at 48. In fact, depending on whether AH turns out to be a real price, I will be loading up. I lucked out by getting in by accident when NT bought PERI. My purchase price is something like 7 1/2 but that is irrelevant as I try to think day to day. No question I should have sold at 89. I should have written calls each month for the past 6 or so. However, that doesn't mean I want to sell at the low. I've got faith in NT management and I usually bash corporate excesses. He's been streamlining, outsourcing what others would consider fabulous businesses to keep this company growing with numbers that, as I said before, make it look like a start-up. I wouldn't be surprised to see a buy-back and/or management buy-in. I know it would take big numbers given the o/s and the float but, at this point, it makes sense. JR will defend the currency of the company. It's not just the share price, it's the incentives to employees. To make a long story short, tomorrow I buy. Why? Do I think at 48 it's more likely to go to 24 or more likely to go to 96 within 6 months? You tell me. Even if the market continues to go down, which I do not think will happen, the giants and the success stories will be the first to move back up. NT will be a leader if not THE leader. They've got the market, the product, the talent and, yes, the management that very few, if any, companies possess.

To: pat mudge who wrote (7527)	10/25/2000 10:20:50 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14638

Pat, First the whole fiber optics area has attracted Momentum investors. And as we all know, a momentum investor is simply a daytrader with its brain bashed out. ;^) One simply can't expect them to do any research prior to making a buy/sell decision. The headline is all that counts. Yes, John Roth explicitly stated that Optics growth will be 20% from 2nd Q (the current record fiber optics Q) to 4th Q. Given that 2nd Q had a $100M inventory build at customers, 3rd Q had that 100M inventory at customers burnoff; 20% growth in optics between the 2 Q's sounds like an affirmation of the growth to me. BWDIK. And yes, it does sound as if very conservative guidance is still being given. NT got blindsided by customers unexpectedly building their own inventories of Fiber Optics equipment. They've already updated their sales process to gather timely intelligence. It's unlikely this mistake will ever be made again by NT. All the same, the market's response appears to be overdone. My guess that calmer heads would prevail now that all have had a chance to fully examine the facts was flat out wrong. Anyone wishing to buy NT below $50 can do so. Ian