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To: Paul Shread who wrote (33999)	10/25/2000 9:46:07 AM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 42787

With the NDX down 150+ points already, my short-term technicals are only in the midrange(intraday reading), which implies that there is still significant potential downside room. Im not saying that it cant reverse from here, but if the NDX continues down it could still move down alot for this short-term swing.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (33999)	10/25/2000 10:36:31 AM
From: Trumptown	Respond to of 42787

<<If the market can deflate those stocks without doing serious damage to the major indexes, that could indicate that the broader market has bottomed>> - excellent point!...if I played short, fibers would have been in the cross hairs for weeks... SR

To: Paul Shread who wrote (33999)	10/25/2000 3:51:57 PM
From: Robert Graham	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

There already has been significant damage to the indices that will take some time for the market to deal with before this can be considered a bull market once again. Right now the market is IMO still sorting this out. I believe this already has been a bear market of intermediate term proportions that will continue behaving as such for a period of time longer. I am sure there will still be some playable rallies for the day trader. I am talking about the larger picture here. The question is if this bear market will become longer term. If and when this happens, the character of the market will change and become more obvious even to those who can only see markets through the "glasses" of a bull as a short term trader. Then things should get interesting. I suggest not letting the bounces give you the wrong impression. Much of that is facilitated through derivatives and the hedge funds aggressive approach to the market with these instruments. This can result in a siren call for the day trader. One tip off is volatility. If as the market rises volatility increases, and this continues over an extended period of time, I suspect it is the big monied players attempting to manage the very short term time frame since they are not finding any impetus for a continued move up in the longer time frame. I suspect this is also a technique that can compliment a selling campaign. This type of volatility would be one good indication of the market topping, which can lead to days of extreme rotation. And if this starts happening in the initial stages of a recovery, then this can be a signal of a longer term bear market in the works. Just some thoughts. Comments welcome! :-) Bob Graham PS: With the change in sentiment that is set up by a longer term sell off, the bottoms usually take longer to form.