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Strategies & Market Trends : Bonds, Currencies, Commodities and Index Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (79)	10/25/2000 2:53:02 PM
From: Nemer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

GZ and I had discussed the lumber and sugar markets before and had found them both verrrrrrrrry difficult areas /// but I knew you'd immediately see the forks in that chart, here is analysis about beans from the TFC service .... >>>>>> Analysis Tue 10/24/00 Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: Price is below the moving average so the trend is down. Additional Analysis: Market trend is DOWN. Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator: Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average. Additional Analysis - Short Term: Recently the market has been extremely bearish, however currently the market has lost a some of its bearishness due to the following: the fast moving average slope is up from previous bar, price is above the fast moving average. Its possible that we may see a market rally here. if so, the rally might turn out to be a good short selling opportunity. Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average. Additional Analysis - Long Term: The market is EXTREMELY BEARISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to lower prices: the fast average is below the slow average; the fast average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on a downward slope from the previous bar; and price is below the fast average and the slow average. Bollinger Bands Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an oversold condition. An oversold reading occurs when the close is nearer to the bottom band than the top band. Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be declining, as evidenced by a decreasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market is in oversold territory. And, the market just signaled a 9 bar bullish key reversal adding to the chance for a rise here. Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. Momentum Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-18.00) is below zero, indicating an oversold market. Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Momentum is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here confirms this outlook. Rate of change Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-3.71) is below zero, indicating an oversold market. Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market and appears to be slowing, suggesting some strength. A modest upturn is possible here. A bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here confirms this outlook. Comm Channel Index Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: CCI (-95.04) has crossed back into the neutral region, issuing a signal to liquidate short positions and return to the sidelines. The range from -100.00 to 100.00 indicates a neutral market. Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation,CCI (-95.04) is bearish, but has begun showing some strength. Begin looking for an attractive point to cover short positions and return to the sidelines. ADX Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is rising. Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is down. A rising ADX indicates that the current trend is healthy and should remain intact. Look for the current downtrending market to continue. DMI Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: DMI+ is less than DMI-, indicating a downward trending market. A signal is generated when DMI+ crosses DMI-. Additional Analysis: DMI is in bearish territory. However, a bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here suggests an upside move is possible. RSI Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 39.79). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone. Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat oversold (RSI is at 39.79), suggesting a possible rally. Supporting this outlook, the bullish key reversal off a 9 bar new low here suggests an upturn in the market. MACD Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: MACD is in bearish territory, but has not issued a signal here. MACD generates a signal when the FastMA crosses above or below the SlowMA. Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is DOWN. MACD is in bearish territory. However, the recent upturn in the MacdMA may indicate a short term rally within the next few bars. Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity. Volume Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume. Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is DOWN. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is DOWN. A bullish key reversal off a 5 bar new low here suggests an upmove, and decreasing volume supports the likelihood of an upturn in the market. Stochastic - Fast Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal. Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to. Stochastic - Slow Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal. The stochastic is in oversold territory (SlowK is at 17.86); this indicates a possible market rise is coming. Additional Analysis: The long term trend is DOWN. The short term trend is DOWN. Don't be fooled looking for a bottom here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking bottoms in a Bull Market (in which we are not). Exit short positions only if some other indicator tells you to. Swing Index Indicator: Conventional Interpretation: The swing index has crossed zero, identifying this bar as a short term pivot point. Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation. Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other Note: The above analysis is computer generated from mathematical formulae, and is provided for educational purposes only. Neither the above, nor any information on this site is intended as a trade recommendation