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Technology Stocks : Harmonic Lightwaves (HLIT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (3907)	10/25/2000 4:04:47 PM
From: nghi vu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4134

Mike, Since I don't know in details on all the products that fit in the "pipe", my guess is...depend on how the equipments fit along the pipe, the cap ex will shift from time to time along the pipe...cable co can't plan well enough to buy equipments evenly...they tend to load up on one segment....then shift to filling up the capacity....and so forth..... example: T loaded up on broadband capacity from ANTC and HLIT last year(as well as other companies). Now they focus on telephony more, thus killed HLIT and flatlined ANTC. ANTC revenue hasn't declined as bad as HLIT because its telephony product line is doing well with T right now. Eventually, capacity will be exhausted and T will have to expand capacity again(not in the next 3 months in my opinion). Now, since T and other cable co are not launching VOD on a broad scale in the next 3 months, I don't expect DIVICOM to land any major contracts until next year. HLIT is dead money for now. No catalyst in the short term horizon to lift this stock in my opinion. Thus, my guess is if you are a big co like a nortel or motorola that has a well diversify product lines, these cap ex "shifts" have a lesser impact than small co like HLIT or ANTC . Just my 1 cent..