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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (15937)	10/25/2000 4:36:02 PM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Without the Duron in cheap systems Q4 is going to be very tough for AMD. I would look for AMD to start dumping 800 MHz Athlons into the grey market to meet their 7.2 million units projection. Their one best hope is eMachines taking advantage of the high prices from other national vendors to capture retail market share. The problem is the lack of chipsets with integrated graphics for low end systems. Q1 2001 is when AMD will slam Intel big time. I look for AMD to introduce the 1.5 GHz Palomino for around $749, with the 1.0 GHz Palomino priced under $150. Together with the move to DDR SDRAM for both Athlon and P-III in the high end market, this will effectively kick the P-III out of the high end. Especially since Palomino with PC1600 DDR SDRAM will clobber P-III with more expensive PC2100 DDR SDRAM in the high end of the market (at the same speed grade).

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (15937)	10/25/2000 5:01:44 PM
From: Goutam	Respond to of 275872

Gopher Broke, re: < Beats me why AMD bother with the Duron. Give the customers what they want - more Athlons. By all means segment the market but do it by introducing the PIV-killer Athlon V to take back the high end (if Intel ever manage to gain it). > You are absolutely correct about Durons if we just look at what happened in the previous quarter, and what's going on this quarter. But, Q1'01 and after, Duron will have a major role to play, especially in the face of increasing capacity at Dresden. It will be a Celeron, and soon to be celeronized PIIIs buster. With highly Integrated chipsets, Duron's will be a major hit in all geographic segments. AMD will be able to capture a major consumer market share with Durons at the expense of Celrons, PIIIs - especially in Asia, and Europe. I believe Durons (or future equivalents) will eventually approach 2/3 of AMD's 7'th generation processors by the end 2001. This will allow AMD to have better margins on Durons in the future, and to position Athlons squarely against PIV at higher ASPs. With increasing Capacity at Dresden, AMD needs Durons to keep the fabs running at full capacity, and to gain market share. Higher market share won't be possible with Athlons alone while maintaining high ASPs. So IMHO, Durons will have an important role to play in 2001. goutama

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (15937)	10/26/2000 9:41:24 AM
From: that_crazy_doug	Respond to of 275872

<< Intel are leaving a hole as big as a barn door in the 1.0 GHz - 1.4 GHz range. AMD are going to back up their truck. And you don't think this will affect ASPs? >> ASPs may rise, but if it's at the cost of lost market share is it worth it? << Beats me why AMD bother with the Duron. Give the customers what they want - more Athlons. By all means segment the market but do it by introducing the PIV-killer Athlon V to take back the high end (if Intel ever manage to gain it). >> The answer to that is quite simply that they probably do not have a p4-killer to release.