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To: Rocky Reid who wrote (16065)10/25/2000 5:28:39 PM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 60323
 
There sure is a lot of anxiety on this thread.

The stock market is always risky short term, that's why it pays off long term. If folks want safety, government bonds are a good place to put your money.

The S&P 500 has gone from a PE of about 36 one and a half years ago, to a PE of about 25 to 26 today. At the same time, S&P earnings have increased at double digit annual rates. This has been a severe valuation correction, most folks didn't notice it because the average stock was flat or didn't go up as much as it's earnings did, but the PE's have been falling steadily for some time. The techs are the strongest, and therefore have been the last to fall victim to sane valuations. And the networkers were the strongest within technology, so they are the last to get the axe. Who's left? I would guess that we are about done with this 18-24 month re-valuation.

Short interest is at an all time high on the NASDAQ and NYSE, the put/call ratio is signaling terrible sentiment.

Either we are due for a sustained rally, or this will become the "big one" that comes along once in a lifetime. I'll bet on the former.

John