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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mtnlady who wrote (33789)	10/25/2000 6:08:37 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Moving into tornado's is the key. For you, this may well be the key, but it isn't actually classic gorilla gaming. Wait until the tornado is established and then ride it on to main street, where the gorilla is still a preferred hold, and you might have a less bumpy ride. There are those who just can't stand the thought of missing every last bit of tornado growth who find themselves reaching earlier and earlier into the cycle, but they should recognize that this additional rapid growth comes with correspondingly greater risk, so failing to pick perfectly may end up countering much of the perceived benefits. These early growth potential gorillas are likely to also have elevated prices such as we associate with a mature gorilla in the tornado, but because they don't yet have the lock, the blocks can also all come tumbling down. Whereas, a true gorilla doesn't stop being a gorilla just because main street has been reached in the tornado that propelled it to the top and, as a gorilla, it still has great growth potential and a preferred position for developing new tornados. Cisco doesn't need to be in a recognized current tornado to still be a gorilla and have gorilla power. They don't need to have been first to the plate in optical to end up the leader there -- they have been slow off the mark and come to dominance before.

To: mtnlady who wrote (33789)	10/25/2000 7:23:13 PM
From: kumar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Mtnlady, looks like we differ in our investment approach... - I am looking for pongid companies that are in/past tornado, and milk the main street ROI for a substantial period of time (many years), by just holding on. - u appear to be looking for companies in the tornado, and move on once main street status has been reached. also, I am willing to give a Gorilla a few years to develop the next tornado, your time horizon appears to be 1-2 years. there-in lies the reason (IMO) why we appear to disagree. BTW, I would not rule out CSCO developing tornadoes in one of a few areas that may be "traditionally outside CSCO territory" : their investments in SWCM (and therefore PHCM), Amteva (a private company that got acquired), their relationship with ELON, and last but not the least (maybe the fastest) : VoIP. I would not be surprised to see some offering utilizing SWCM+PHCM+Amteva+VoIP. cheers, kumar