To: limtex who wrote (16066 ) 10/25/2000 8:46:43 PM From: Sam Read Replies (1) | Respond to L,feels new when the market tanks like this, and doesn't respond to great news, but it isn't new at all. The real question is, I think, will the semi cycle end next year? And, I guess, a corollary, will the whole economy tank next year, or will the Powers That Be figure out a way to keep this thing going? My own opinion about the latter (FWIW) is: if Bush is elected with a Republican Congress, the party will end, though not perhaps immediately. Greenspan won't be reducing rates much with a stimulus like Bush's (IMO) mindless tax cut. And the cut will go mainly to people who are already big spenders, and most of whom, frankly, don't really need it. If Gore and the Dems get in, it will depend on their majority. I don't buy that they will "spend spend spend", I think that they will be mostly pretty responsible, unless they get a bigger majority than currently seems plausible. Then there will be pressure on them to give their supporters some pork of various sorts, and they won't have excuses not to. If there is a split, or if the Democratic majority is razor thin, then we'll be OK, even if there may be some knee jerk sell-off if the Dems control both branches. AG will be happy that there will be more deficit paydown, and will be more willing to accommodate the markets, I think, with rate cuts, which will help everyone, and will ease the dollar a little, help Europe ease rates with (presumably) a stronger Euro. I don't think, like some apparently do, that it is writ in stone that next year will be a lousy one for the market or for semis. It's still up in the air, and the election will have a lot to do with it.
