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Strategies & Market Trends : Anthony @ Equity Investigations, Dear Anthony, -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (61439)	10/25/2000 8:36:24 PM
From: StockDung	Respond to of 122087

Anthony said it first->Lehman Again Says Avoid Amazon.com Convertible Bonds By David A. Gaffen Staff Reporter 10/25/00 6:46 PM ET thestreet.com Nothing like a fixed-income analyst to rain on the rest of the world's parade. Lehman Brothers convertible bond analyst Ravi Suria, who in June issued a harsh report on Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq - news), has again cautioned investors from buying Amazon's convertible bonds, a day after the online retailer reported third-quarter earnings. Generally, bond analysts aren't paid any attention by the equity market, but since convertible bonds have equity characteristics, equity investors have on occasion reacted to reports on high-profile companies like Amazon. Suria, in his comment, said Lehman "continues to be concerned about Amazon's cash picture in the first half of next year. We believe that the true credit picture will emerge over the holiday selling season and will revisit our recommendation in the first half of next year." Amazon.com reported a loss of 25 cents a share for the third quarter, but the subsequent conference call was considered reasonably positive by the market, as Amazon gained $2.31 to $31.88, or 7.8%, in trading today. In after-hours action the stock continued to rise, lately at $32.44. On June 22, Suria released a scathing report on Amazon, which caused the stock to tumble. It lost 19% of its value June 23, as 52 million shares changed hands that day.

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (61439)	10/25/2000 8:47:20 PM
From: StockDung	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 122087

Amazon Rallies, but Bears Still See Plenty to Roar About By Katherine Hobson Senior Writer 10/25/00 12:04 PM ET thestreet.com For once, the Amazon.com (AMZN:Nasdaq - news) bears were silent Wednesday. Rebounding 'Inflection point' for Amazon Amazon's shares surged more 21% Wednesday after the company Tuesday night reported a narrower-than-expected third-quarter loss, greater-than-expected sales and a big improvement in gross margins. Woo hoo! Party! Bobby Valentine probably rallied his Mets by quoting Jeff Bezos. What could be wrong with that? Ah, but this is Amazon, possibly the world's most controversial stock. When one's market cap is about ten times that of Barnes & Noble (BKS:NYSE - news), and one's price-to-sales ratio is about four times that of Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - news), there is always something to pick at. Toys in the Attic? So for the sake of argument -- because there will still be plenty about Amazon -- here goes: First, sales growth. The company said sales rose 79% from the same quarter a year ago, to $638 million. As TheStreet.com noted Tuesday, however, that figure includes $20 million in toys Amazon sold to Toysrus.com (at cost) for the companies' sales partnership. Subtract that out, and sales were $618 million -- still higher than the $600 million consensus, but not as spectacular. And Mark Rowen, analyst at Prudential Securities, notes that sales growth at the company's main book, music and video segment was just 33% over the third quarter of 1999. Rowen thinks the company's book business is getting close to saturation, and that growth will eventually slow to the rate of growth in the book industry -- some 5% -- plus the rate of growth for Internet adoption -- 15%-20%, he figures. (Rowen rates Amazon shares a hold, and his firm hasn't done underwriting for the company.) Slippery Slope Amazon's retreat from highs But what about all those new businesses? Didn't consumer electronics leapfrog music to become Amazon's second-biggest product segment during the quarter? Yes, it did. But Sara Farley, analyst with PaineWebber, isn't too impressed, since electronics have such a higher average sales price than music. (She rates Amazon shares a neutral, and her firm hasn't done underwriting for the company.) Moreover, consumer electronics isn't the best business to be in these days. Circuit City (CC:NYSE - news) is sucking some serious wind, and while part of its woes are due to its own remodeling and decision to phase out appliances, there's unease about the whole industry given the apparent consumer slowdown. What happens to Amazon's consumer electronics margins if the entire sector sees big discounts? Then there's the future. Amazon estimated 2001 revenue of $4 billion. That would represent growth of less than the 50% rate that Amazon, at its September analyst day, estimated it could achieve. "Revenue guidance was modest -- it was lower than I expected," says Faye Landes, analyst with Sanford Bernstein, who rates the stock underperform. (Her firm doesn't do underwriting.) "The quarter looked pretty good, but I'm reserving judgment." Gross margins? Much better than even the most bullish of bulls had anticipated, thanks to fewer split shipments, better inventory management and better terms with vendors. Farley says that isn't enough. "We didn't hear anything that's going to change our thesis on the stock," says Farley. "Operating efficiencies only get you so far, and the real benefit will come from leverage from accelerated revenue growth." The Exposure Finally, there's the continuing issue of the Amazon Commerce Network, the fancy name for the group of partners Amazon features on its site. Revenue coming from companies like Pets.com (IPET:Nasdaq - news) and Drugstore.com (DSCM:Nasdaq - news) is admittedly very high margin (some 98%, estimates Farley). But as bears have long pointed out, this revenue stream is subject to renegotiation as e-tailing companies suffer. And it doesn't really reflect strength in Amazon's main business -- selling stuff. To be sure, none of this changes the fact that Amazon beat the Street's estimates. Some, like Merrill Lynch's Henry Blodget, think this is the inflection point that Amazon shareholders have been waiting for. There's certainly plenty of good news to hang one's hat on. (Blodget rates Amazon accumulate, and his firm hasn't done underwriting for the company.) But remember: This was just the third quarter. The holiday sales season is just now beginning, and Amazon got 41% of its 1999 sales in the fourth quarter. That means what happens in the next few months is far more crucial to Amazon than what happened last quarter. And at these still-lofty valuations, the Amazon controversy is very far from over. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Send letters to the editor to letters@thestreet.com.

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (61439)	10/25/2000 9:25:34 PM
From: StockDung	Respond to of 122087

Its almost like saying thestreet.com is a terminal short? One that might not ever have too be covered? fortune.com ................. ,__ __, \)`\_..._/`(/ .' _ _ '. / o\ /o \| .-.-. \| _ \| /() ()\ \| (,`) / \ '-----' / \ .' \| '-..___..-' \| \| \| \| \| ; ; \ / \ / \-..-/'-'\-..-/ jgs \/\/ \/\/

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (61439)	10/25/2000 9:48:58 PM
From: StockDung	Respond to of 122087

Lehman still says "avoid" Amazon.com convert bonds By Jonathan Stempel NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - One day after Amazon.com Inc.<AMZN.O> surprised Wall Street by saying it is losing less money than expected, Lehman Brothers Inc. for the second time this year warned investors to "avoid" the Internet retailer's convertible bonds. "Despite the obvious improvement in operations, we continue to be concerned about Amazon's cash picture in the first half of next year," wrote Ravi Suria, vice president of convertibles strategy, in a report dated Wednesday. Suria issued a similar warning in June, when he said Amazon.com could run out of cash by the middle of 2001. That helped trigger a 19 percent one-day slide in the Seattle-based company's stock. "It is (the fourth quarter) that makes or breaks a retailer," Suria wrote on Wednesday. "While the (third quarter) numbers are encouraging (especially in the light of some of the recent disappointments in the overall retailing sector) we would be looking at the numbers in the first quarter of 2001 to reassess our position on the convertibles. "We believe that the true credit picture will emerge over the holiday selling season," he concluded. Amazon.com declined to comment, saying it does not discuss analyst reports. Suria was not available for further comment. Suria issued his report on a day when shares of Amazon.com rose $2-5/16, or 7.82 percent, to close at $31-7/8 on Nasdaq volume of 28.6 million shares. The stock remains far below its all-time high of $113 set last December. Wednesday's rise came after Amazon.com, which has sold more than $2 billion of convertible and high-yield bonds, said it lost 25 cents per share in its third quarter, below the 33 cent loss analysts polled by First Call/Thomson Financial expected. The company also said third-quarter revenues totaled $638 million, above the roughly $600 million analysts expected. NO CONFIDENCE In his new report, Suria said Amazon.com enjoyed "substantial operating improvement" in the quarter, even though one-time gains appeared to boost cash levels by about $75 million -- an amount "not of tremendous significance." The analyst, however, questioned Amazon.com's projections for how much cash it will keep on hand. Amazon.com said it had $900 million at the end of its third quarter, and expects to have $1 billion at the end of the year and $700 million at the end of March. "We do not have confidence" in the latter number, he wrote. Most retailers, he wrote, close their books in January, while Amazon.com closes its books in December. At that date, he wrote, even if Amazon.com has $1 billion in cash, it will have $650 million of bills to pay off, leaving it with only $350 million of usable cash. This lower amount, Suria wrote, suggests lower liquidity, and may push vendors to demand payments sooner. "If the company's cash balance dips below $400 million, then the vendor squeeze is likely to pick up sharply," he wrote. AMAZON.COM'S CONVERTIBLE BONDS In January 1999, Amazon.com sold $1.25 billion of the 4.75 percent convertible bonds maturing in 2009. On Tuesday, these bonds were bid at 56.1 cents on the dollar, with a yield to maturity of 13.8 percent, Lehman said. Amazon.com in February 2000 sold 690 million euros (then worth about $681 million) of 6.875 percent convertible bonds maturing in 2010. Credit rating agency Standard & Poor's rates Amazon.com's convertible bonds "CCC-plus." Another agency, Moody's Investors Service rates them "Caa3," roughly two notches lower. Both grades are considered low junk grades. 20:35 10-25-00 ....

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (61439)	10/25/2000 10:09:12 PM
From: Stcgg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 122087

Tony - Remember Tracy? Message 14661151 NO MORE FAAAASST AND EAAASSY MONNNNEEEEE! HO HO HO! >><<

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (61439)	10/26/2000 8:49:29 AM
From: Michael T Currie	Respond to of 122087

Anthony, I would greatly appreciate an opinion on HOLL if you get the opportunity. Thanks in advance. Mike

To: Anthony@Pacific who wrote (61439)	10/26/2000 9:55:12 AM
From: StockDung	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 122087

ZiaSun, Former President Anthony Tobin, and Promoter Bryant Cragun Drop Lawsuit and Agree to Pay Opposition Thousands WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 25, 2000 2:52 AM - BusinessWire SAN DIEGO, Oct 25, 2000 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Plaintiffs in two closely watched "cyberexpose" lawsuits have agreed to drop all of their charges against a group of online message board posters and have also agreed to pay one of the defendants $60,000. ZiaSun Technologies Inc. (OTCBB:ZSUN), a San Diego-based company, sued unrelated Internet posters George Joakimidis, Michael Morelock, Floyd Schneider and Stephen N. Worthington in mid-1999 for allegedly waging a cyberexpose campaign against them in Internet chatrooms. ZiaSun, its former president Anthony Tobin and a ZiaSun promoter and fundraiser, Bryant Cragun, alleged that the defendants disseminated false information linking them to criminal behavior, pornography, improper financial interests, false corporate disclosures and illegal business practices. Plaintiffs sought court injunctions against further posting by defendants. They also demanded $500,000 in lost earnings and earning capacity, reimbursement of their costs and attorneys' fees, a public apology and that defendants retract all of their postings. Defendants contended that everything they posted about plaintiffs was absolutely true and therefore, as a matter of law, they could not be held liable. One of the defendants, George Joakimidis, cross-sued ZiaSun, Tobin and Cragun for fraud. In a settlement agreement reached by the parties, plaintiffs dismissed all of their charges against defendants, dropped all of their demands for monetary compensation, dropped their demands that defendants apologize and retract their postings and agreed to pay George Joakimidis $60,000. Except for one news release per side, the parties agreed to make no future publications about one another. George Joakimidis stated: "I am relieved that it is all over. It is perhaps unfortunate that the cases did not go to trial, where I would have been given the opportunity to prove that everything I posted on the various message boards was true. "Cragun and ZiaSun, on the other hand, would have been compelled to substantiate their allegations against me. So why did I agree to an out-of-court settlement? To save time, effort and money and to put this lawsuit behind me." Michael Morelock stated: "I was looking forward to my day in court, but this settlement was too good to pass up. I view this lawsuit as an attempt to stifle free speech that backfired." Floyd Schneider stated: "I feel vindicated. For the same reasons that companies use the Internet as a promotional vehicle, it has also provided the individual investor with the tools to seek out the facts and to be heard." Stephen N. Worthington stated: "This is, in no uncertain terms, a victory for free speech. If you know your facts, you should not be afraid to stand up and fight for the truth. The suit appeared to be an attempt by ZSUN to silence those who have raised questions concerning the operational and valuation issues associated with the company. "The securities markets require full and open discussion of information, including all viewpoints. A public company should not be using its power to sue those with opinions different from the company's, since that would chill the exercise of free speech protected by the First Amendment and thwart the goals of the securities laws." James A. Shalvoy, the defendants' lawyer, noted: "We are seeing more of these cases as the Internet's role in securities transactions increases. Honest posters have nothing to fear. The Internet may be the New Frontier, but the rule of law still applies." For additional information, contact: James A. Shalvoy, attorney for George Joakimidis, Michael Morelock, Floyd Schneider, and Stephen N. Worthington, at 310/796-0447 or jshalvoy@earthlink.net. CONTACT: Law Offices of James A. Shalvoy James A. Shalvoy, 310/796-0447 jshalvoy@earthlink.net URL: businesswire.com Today's News On The Net - Business Wire's full file on the Internet with Hyperlinks to your home page. Copyright (C) 2000 Business Wire. All rights reserved. KEYWORD: CALIFORNIA INDUSTRY KEYWORD: INTERNET LEGAL/LAW ......