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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lodi who wrote (227)	10/26/2000 1:10:13 AM
From: Stcgg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

THE NAZ BOTTOM IS SOMEWHERE NEAR 1000 - Message 14659769 >><<

To: Lodi who wrote (227)	10/26/2000 1:27:39 AM
From: The Duke of URL©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

VERY OT: your screen name fills me with nostalgic memories of sweet days past in Northern California so maybe now is the time for a moment of silence for our dearly departed brethren who were unfortunate enough to be in the market, today. CCR, right? ...Just about a year ago I set out on the road Seekin' my fame and fortune And lookin' for a pot of gold Things got bad, and things got worse I guess you know the tune Oh,...Lord,...stuck in Lodi again

To: Lodi who wrote (227)	10/26/2000 11:34:39 AM
From: tradermike_1999	Respond to of 74559

Past Predictions: WEll I'm not perfect. Last December I came to the conclusion that the stock market would crash in 2000. Believed a lot of the runup was because of Greenspan pumping money into the banking system in fears of Y2K. Once no crisis happened he would have to withdraw it. I told people thought it might happen in February. I had two accounts a trading account were I do short term breakouts and shorts and a long term investment account. One is online and the other was with a traditional broker. In the end of February I called the broker up and liquidated the account. Said I thought the market was going to crash at some point and I didn't want to be in it. He said I was crazy. Kept going long though in the short term trading account and stocks were doing wild things jan and feb. I'd make a list of 10-20 a day and more than half would breakout and go up at least 20%. Some doubled, tripled in a few days. It was nuts. When March came something interesting happened. 75% of the breakouts began to fail. They would just go up 1/4 or 1/2 and fall right back. Hadn't seen anything like that. The market was changing. At the end of the month it made a double top and then in one day it did a mini-crash in the middle of the day and bounced right back. April 4th I believed. STudying the nasdaq - the double top, declining a/d line, volume pattern - and then going through individual tech stocks it was clear a lot of insider and insitutional selling took place in march - I came to the conclusion that the market would crash. Went short on April 10th the reversal day. Told everyone I knew to get out but 99% wouldn't listen even though they knew I had been making pretty decent money in the stock market. The broker said I was insane. I ain't perfect. I got fooled in August into thinking the market might put on a good rally - thinking it could break the 4200 in early September. I was still long term bearish at the time just got suckered by the bull trap into thinking we would get a rally. So I missed the best shorting opportunity. No one is perfect and I ain't. Been buying when market gaps down a lot and shorting when it gaps up. Works over - but have to use tight stops. Future: I thought that the market had put in a good bottom last week. TRIN, VIX, and other indicators that historically have signaled bottoms in the past did so again last week. I was thinking this weekend we would get a good rally and maybe get into the high 3000s by end of the year. But rally hit 3600 brick wall. Not exactly sure what it is going to do over the next week - if it will hold 3000 or break it. Whatever it does over short term I think next year it will have another big dump. That's when the real economic slowdown will occur. I have two scenarios - simple slowdown and interest rates are cut towards the end of next year. Just another pause in long term bull market. Second - dollar crashes because of the dangerous economic imbalances in the US and world economy. Interest rate hikes set off a deflationary spiral and put the country in a recession that will last 2-3 years. Stock market has a major meltdown next year.