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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pressboxjr who wrote (39628)	10/26/2000 5:26:44 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 57584

What if Brinker just miscalculated NT's earnings? What if I said Brinker is very, very close with JDSU managment and has said several times its the BEST STOCK HE HAS EVER OWNED, also BEST MANAGED, IN THE FASTEST GROWING SECTOR! What If Brinker who owns JDSU at around $3.0 a share actaully has a handle on JDSU's earnings projections. After AMCC's report, going into monday of this week, and then come thursday after JDSU reports STELLER numbers did he foresee NASD bounce from 3400-3850 range in the mext sveral weeks?? Looking closely at Brinker and following his lead I will not sell my optics at the close today. If indeed Brinker is a handicap to the NASD with a long call on the QQQ at 82 I believe we may indeed bounce VERY HARD to the upside going into election week! Just remember, if NT did not have some MINOR set backs where would the NASD be? Its my belief that all traders perhaps should look at LU and NT as anomolies. I actually believe NT had a fantastic report and the analyst screwed the numbers up by expecting way too much!! look at NT's market share did anyone believe they would not lose some? I believe the smaller players are taking a bigger chunk of the optic business NUFO, AVNX, ONIS, OPLK from the kings GLW,JDSU. Read AVNX and NUFO's earnings report. You may also throw in CORV as another small player taking market share. So as I sit here this morning I am actually contemplating the BIG PICTURE. Those that nibbled yesterday may be very rewarded come the next 3 weeks. Again I am using the scenerio that we got the CAPITULATION and EXCESS out of the Optics. Of course the other problem still lingers are the Bio-techs. The Bio's may stay strong to flat as the NASD tries to bounce to 3800 range. DISCLAIMER: This theory is purely taking Brinker's call into consideration. Its important also to think Brinker may have considered NT as a lock to have strong results thus continue NASD climb to 3850 range. JDSU may kick this NASD back up to the 3500 range before you know it!

To: pressboxjr who wrote (39628)	10/26/2000 5:59:28 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (10) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . More Random Thoughts . . . . Thanks JrEwing and others for sharing your thoughts at such a time of discomfort for investors. I am certain that it is appreciated by many. . . . .Shudder the Thought. . . Any downside is limited, IMO. Unless we go to war or if some major city gets nuked. Our military remains on the highest security alert this morning. The bombing of our ship was coincidentally timed perfectly to tank the markets. It WAS coincidental, right? The Middle-Eastern terrorists couldn't also be short-sellers. . . could they? And they wouldn't dare attack another U.S. property when the Nasdaq was back in a vulnerable state. . . could they? Or some other event of National Security couldn't coincidentally happen this morning before the bell, could it? That would be dreadful on a level far above that of the markets. . . . . .Earnings . . . . . On a more realistic level. . . JDSU reports today. I don't dare "bet" on whether or not they can pull off a victory [above .16 cents] . . .but if I were to place a bet, it would be on the side of "no they cannot". The demand for fibre optics products is just too strong for the production capacity of the fibre optic companies. We've discussed this many times as a growing problem among fibres . . .and this all comes as no surprise. VRSN hot on blowout earnings. . . .18 cents vs. expected EPS of .06 cents! Ever since they bought NSOL, they have had very hot earnings. WCOM reports later. Long-distance down again? Wireless up again? I believe that NOK, SNE and AMGN report. . . . . . October . . . . . It is fascinating how little has changed since October 6th. . . Message 14529765 I believe that while everyone's attention will be on the earnings plays of the day. . .the winners, like the Phoenix plays we have isolated. . .should buck the trend and creep up underneath the weakness of the markets . . .this is where my focus will be next week. Once again, this is NOT the time to be dumping, but rather accumulating. I buy the bargains. . .and when I find better bargain, I will trade away one for another. . .in an attempt to get the best possible hand. And do not forget that if we get a poor earnings season, or if oil were to start moving up again, or if Asia were to go into turmoil, we could move much lower than we are now. . .so caution is urged. This is not the time to take a "stand" . . . as you could become a martyr instead. Unfortunately, many of the micro-caps will not rebound when the market does. Watch out getting allocated in small and micro caps moving into mid-October. Some will pop, but most will stay down until the company gets news which is strong enough to force a short-covering. This is a good time to be buying micro-caps for the long-term. . . but just don't have near-term expectations for them, or you may find yourself very frustrated very quickly. There is little reason to be speculating in stocks which are unproven when the Blue Chips are as inexpensive as they are now. Rande Is . . . . . Hope . . . . . Everyone is looking for capitulation. We've given more bandwidth to that word this year than at any time in the past. What causes capitulation? And are we anywhere near it? Well, capitulation is the surrender of the individual investor. . . .no one else. That is the standard market definition. . .not mine. Note: The Market Makers, the Hedge Fund Managers, the Mutual Fund Managers. . . .are NOT going to surrender. They are on salary. They make money, whether or not they make good trades. What causes the Individual Investor to give up their port? The loss of hope. As long as their is hope that these tech stocks can "pull it out", then there is "still a chance" that the Nasdaq and the portfolio can "turn around" and gain back some of those losses. But there is a point at which the Individual Investor figures, "whats the use?" . . ."even if it were to turn around now, I have no more money left to buy the bargains, anyhow." . . . or . . . "I no longer care what the markets do, I just want my money OUT of the markets." This is capitulation. It is caused by loss of hope. It is a sad state of affairs that Wall Street basis its strategy on such a pitiful condition. But that is why they measure consumer sentiment, etc. so effectively. And this time of year especially, it is VERY important to them to read these boards and get the consensus of opinion regarding tech stocks. They want to know where our line in the sand is. Like fine negotiators, they need to know precisely where we will sell, before they begin. . . . . and when they do, the outcome is guaranteed. So once again, it will probably serve us well to "file" our official capitulation cries. . . . . . Futures Markets for Thurs . . . . Nasdaq Futures are up about 70 points. . . indicating a sharp recovery rally. . . or possibly even a "Snap-back" rally, should we get some good earnings reports before the bell. . . .unless of course we get another military scare. SPOOz is modestly higher. . . . . What Next? . . . . I am happy with the trades I have made this week. . . selling the mediocre values for BETTER values. . .has given me what I feel is a GREAT hand moving forward. . . though you could not tell by the current value. But what happens after todays bell? After all that has happened, can anyone look at todays Futures Markets and the vitals of the market and accurately predict what happens today? I doubt any analyst, technician, guru or other ego-driven market watcher dare give such a prediction. . .anymore. . .after being stung so many times in the past 2 months. Beware especially those who say they "know" what will happen in THIS market. They live in a dream-world. A coin-toss might yield better reliability at this point. And maybe that reality is another form of capitulation. Why take out just the Individual Investors? . . .when they can discredit the Leaders at the same time? And with that, I bid you all a GOOD morning! Rande Is PS> Prayer request for youngest girl. . .we're taking her to emergency for unusual pains and persistant fever.