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Politics : Al Gore vs George Bush: the moderate's perspective -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (3640)	10/26/2000 8:38:47 AM
From: ColtonGang	Respond to of 10042

Gore Gains in Florida, Bush Narrows California Gap, Polls Show By Mark Willen Washington, Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- With daily tracking polls showing the closest U.S. presidential race in more than two decades, a new poll in Florida shows Vice President Al Gore is gaining ground there, while Texas Governor George W. Bush is closing the gap in California. A New York Times/CBS poll of likely voters taken Oct. 22-24 shows Gore with 44 percent and Bush with 42 percent, a virtual tie given the poll's margin of error of 4 percentage points. Earlier this year, Bush was ahead in Florida, where his brother, Jeb Bush, is the governor. In California, a Public Policy Institute poll of likely voters taken Oct. 11-18 showed Gore leading Bush 44 percent to 39 percent, with a 2 percentage point margin of error. Gore's lead was twice that size in an institute poll a month ago. The New York Times also today quoted unnamed Democratic consultants saying their own poll shows the race is even closer, with Gore's lead within the margin of error. President Bill Clinton is scheduled to campaign for Gore and Democratic congressional candidates in California several days next week. Gore hasn't been in California since mid-August and had been so sure of winning the state that he hasn't spent any money advertising there. Both California and Florida are important because of their size and the winner-take-all rules that determine the electoral vote. California has 54 electoral voters, while Florida has 25. To win the election, a candidate needs to receive at least 270 electoral votes. Tracking Polls National tracking polls show a tight race, with Bush doing slighter better than Gore. The Washington Post tracking poll gives Bush 47 percent to Gore's 45 percent. The USA Today/CNN/Gallup tracking poll gave Bush a larger 48 percent to 41 lead. Both tracking polls had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. Gore had been gaining in the daily tracking polls but today's results suggest the momentum is now with Bush. Tracking polls are less reliable than conventional polls because of time pressures and methodology. In a conventional survey, pollsters repeatedly call back numbers on a randomly chosen list until they get someone to answer the phone. Tracking polls try only once, which leads to a higher percentage of retirees and mothers with small children. Pollsters try to adjust for that by weighting the results, but it's an inexact science. For example, the Washington Post and ABC news share the same data each night but apply their own weight formulas. Often they report results that differ by a percentage point or two.