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To: Chip McVickar who wrote (85)	10/26/2000 12:16:16 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12411

<your brain said "WOW this Works" and off you went exploring ANNs and Pattern trading> I looked at a lot of stuff over the years and I gravitated to methods that appealed to my sense of order I suppose. I first signed on with Welles Wider on a whim in the early/mid 80s to try his Delta Method out. I hooked up with Hank Camp over 5 years ago because his methods seemed intriguing and probably not co-incidentally his method parallels Wilder's Delta closely. Around the same time I tried out Andrew's Pitchfork, although I forget what Market I used it for; probably OEX, possibly individual stocks. I really liked the concept but I knew no one, anywhere, that knew anything about it. So I discarded it because there was no Gordon around to check with. Had the Internet been more universal then I might have found Gordon and become immersed in it. But I choose not to now, those were the years I was trying to find something that worked and learning a new method is pointless for me. I'm not saying that it is unwise to learn something new, just that this would be a sea change in approach not to mention the time invested. The Nets appealed to me; an engineer by training I had to latch onto a scientific approach like that. Just too tempting; sort of like a chocaholic living next store to a Godiva's outlet. I had the money, I was going to buy the best damn box of chocolate in the building. It was a fruitless experiment for 2 and a half years, then I decided I was going about it ass-backwards. Why take the most difficult market in the world to model? So taking easier ones you can get better results and spread risk. So I'm not making $250 a point, I'm making $10 or $12.50 or something. But on the other hand, when the market moves against then I'm only losing $12.50; what this does for me is make it a hell of a lot easier to position. Because the Nets are correct so much of the time I can use logical Stops that are away from the Market and if I'm taken out it's no crisis. Since doing this I do not think I have been taken out once. Not that sort of thing appeals to me a lot. But oddly I sometimes day trade within the parameters of the Net. The net suggested that the C$ should not trade much outside of a certain range today, and so when it went above that range I Sold more. You might have done the same off a pitchfork. However. The aNN s*cks at SP. It's not worth a damn. So there is something that does not easily XFer. Ask anyone who uses one, the SP is a bear to develop a sound model for. Some markets are just easier to model than others; I would imagine that if one were to re-optimize every so often they could get a sound SP model but that's sort of cheating. What my point was, and Nemer caught it, is that certain markets have as their nature a resistance to conventional indicators....in many cases simply because of liquidity. That Lumber Market, for example, may be an abysmal market to trade using indicators. It's not unusual for it to Open Lock Limit, unless you catch the Indicator just so then you can be toast. I recall a pair of guys in oil who went to the pit every day around 20 years ago because they had a great position on but could not get out...they were way ahead but could not close out. You might as well sold ladies hats in the pit, it was so empty. Then as well some markets are just manipulated. All the bar charts in the world won't help. What I'm trying to say is that we have to "know" the market before we know what to apply. Oh jes; Canada is taking a body blow.......out at 65^82 What do you think of the Euro? I know someone taking a speculative Long on the March and intends to scale in if it drops lower. There is an RSI for ya, somewhere around 7 or 8.