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To: Oblomov who wrote (31479)10/26/2000 11:05:46 AM
From: Don Lloyd  Respond to of 436258
 
Oblomov -

...It seem that the economy has been precariously balanced between inflation and deflation over the past three years. The trend, IMO, has been toward deflation, but due to years of loose credit policy as an attempt to fight it, we have seen inflation crop up in commodities. Only Austrian economic theory purports to explain why this has occurred: The loose credit policy has resulted in investment in lower stages of production (consumer goods), without the correct corresponding investment in higher stages of production (capital goods, such as drilling equipment, tankers, etc.). So we have inflationary and deflationary forces tugging at our economy at the same time. The problem is that these forces don't merely cancel each other out. They each do damage to our economy in its own way....

I think that your description of Austrian theory is not quite right. The government induced supply of money and credit suppresses the interest rate below what it would normally be, i.e. the time preference for present consumption over future consumption. The producers of higher order goods see the lower interest rates and deduce that consumers will be willing to save and invest for future consumption to a larger degree than is actually the fact. This results in all sorts of malinvestments that are never recovered as the projected future demand never materializes, leading to the inevitable bust as the malinvestments are liquidated at large losses.

In a economic world with hard money, the normal condition is deflation as a continuing increase in unit productivity drives down prices. This would not be any kind of problem absent the extreme levels of government intervention in the labor markets. Between minimum wage laws and the use of government force and the selective non-enforcement of laws to benefit unions in exchange for political support, the flexibility of the labor markets is severely damaged and they cannot easily adapt to changing conditions. This means that instead of moderate short term wage reductions, severe unemployment results as the labor market moves from a market price regime to a price controlled regime.

IMO the commodity price inflation has two parts. First, higher prices are the proper result of a period of excess demand over supply. This is a signal to bring on new supply, and a means of suppressing less urgent demand. Secondly, the extreme price movements are the result of political and government regulation and intervention that have prevented the supply from coming forth in response to the price signals in the past. Additional investment only will respond to higher prospective rates of return. If it is known that the extra profits are likely to be regulated away, the investments will not be made.

Regards, Don