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Politics : Al Gore vs George Bush: the moderate's perspective -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: American Spirit who wrote (3645)	10/26/2000 11:00:30 AM
From: jlallen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10042

From POA: October 25, 2000 FLORIDA: Too Close to Call Nelson Leads for Senate Governor George W. Bush and Vice President Al Gore are battling for Florida’s 25 electoral votes. According to the most recent Portrait of America (POA) telephone survey of likely voters, Bush has 46%, Gore 45%. This is within the +/- 3 percentage point margin of error, making this race a toss-up. Gore trailed by four points in the previous POA survey on October 16, 2000. Both polls within the margin of error. POA poll has a much larger sample size. JLA

To: American Spirit who wrote (3645)	10/26/2000 11:03:07 AM
From: Slugger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10042

was conducted between Oct. 17 and 23 among 606 likely voters. Weekend polling, again. Don't get too excited.

To: American Spirit who wrote (3645)	10/26/2000 11:59:49 AM
From: Slugger	Respond to of 10042

Gallup's Credibility Gap What's with those wild swings in the polls? Thursday, October 26, 2000 12:01 a.m. EDT "The Gallup Poll just has no credibility with me anymore," the network producer sighs. "Even if the survey methods are valid, how can you tell viewers that a swing of 15 points in four days is realistic?" They might be even more skeptical of Gallup's tracking poll if they knew that the swings are due in large part to the company's nightly sample having large fluctuations in how many Democrats vs. Republicans are interviewed. One three-night sample, on Oct. 4, had 37% Democrats and 30% Republicans. Perhaps not surprisingly, Al Gore had an 11-point lead. Three nights later, on Oct. 7, a completely new sample consisted of 39% Republicans and only 31% Democrats. Lo and behold, George W. Bush suddenly had an eight-point lead. Typical exit polls of actual voters, taken as they leave the polls, show the parties evenly matched or with just a point or two advantage for Democrats. Gallup and CNN, a major sponsor of its poll, insist they have a plausible explanation for this. Gallup told the Washington Post that in 1996 fully 25% of the people they contacted changed their party identification at least twice. That seems highly implausible, and James Campbell, a polling expert at the State University of New York at Buffalo, says it's "crazy" and misleading to base nightly poll results on a hypothetical electorate that switches party identification so readily. Gallup has certainly been a roller coaster this year, while other tracking polls have been remarkably placid. But because of Gallup's reputation, and because its tracking poll is sponsored by CNN and USA Today, the company's stomach-churning numbers get a lot of attention and overshadow the four other tracking polls. more--> opinionjournal.com