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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CAtechTrader who wrote (9890)	10/26/2000 11:03:02 AM
From: edamo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

ca..."margin, leveraged money, et al" agree on the margin situation, but what many "investors" fail to consider in any timing analysis is whether a stock is under accumulation or distribution. jdsu, sdli, extr, and some of the other recent falling knives have indicated patterns of accelerating distribution for many weeks. until they stabilize, and begin an accumulation, they will remain with a downside risk.... consider intc....distribution about as bad as it gets...it will soon begin an accumulation phase, this doesn't guarantee any gains, but it forecasts direction. it's been a momentum market for a long while....just the natural ebb and flow......excess up = excess down. when this occurs things neutralize, and efficiency returns agree very much that institutions also get margin calls, especially hedge funds....but are not these the "houses" that manipulate the retail buyer???? pure momentum, less any external force, can bring jdsu to the 50's, and stocks like sdli and brcm can see the 170's....the laws of physics tend to apply... the momentum will reverse, when the low cost basis stock is depleted...just look at a stock like dell...similar situation good luck...ed a. p.s... i'm an eternal bull, just a bit more prudent then the raging bulls