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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Kirlin who wrote (39695)	10/26/2000 6:45:12 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . More Thoughts. . . . . Thanks again, George and all. . . I shut everything down as we were dumping. . . turn it back on. . .and all is "well" again. And what REALLY changed? Nothing. [All is well here at the hospital, too. She is up and walking and eating once again. . . though I doubt they will let her go home until morning.] Nortel was the big disappointment this week. . .yet they post a buck-eighty five dividends. Now tell me we weren't set up on that one. Market tanks ahead of the JDSU earnings. . . all this talk of gloom and doom. . . and they beat the street handily. This feels like the Po' Boys [Power Broker Boys] snubbed their nose at Regulation FD. . . found a backdoor using Foreign companies. . . And went on with business as usual. . . just to show they could. I can hear the chuckles of laughter in the large room smelling of tobacco and cognac. At times like today, I feel like a hamster in a cage running in a wheel to generate electricity so that some Po' Boy can have a light on his desk. In other words, all of this manipulation is just childs play. . . and an end of day bookkeeping entry. Whereas to the typical Individual Investor, it is personal. . . it is an indication of what sort of year is ahead for their family financially. And that explains why I get so upset at the obvious manipulations like we saw today and on so many days recently. Even the journalists have "capitulated" trying to explain each market swing. So are we now out of the water?. . . .and are we headed higher from here? Was that "enough" capitulation? Is it EVER enough? Do the Po' Boys, who pull the strings and determine whether or not they have "enough" capitulation, have an capitulation indicator they follow? We watch technical indicators and other market signs. . . .they are watching sentiment, put & call ratios, etc. We wonder what their next move will be. . . which direction we are headed. They know the next move in advance. It makes me wonder if there is any risk at all in the plays of the Po' Boys. I would love to read a work that would candidly illustrate the technical differences between the trades made by the top traders, hedge managers, etc. and the typical "retail" trade made by you and I. The differences are probably astounding. And so we wait and see once more. . . holding our handful of undervalued tech stocks. . . hoping they are once again seen by the masses. . for the bargains that we all "know" them to be. I believe that as traders, we must adopt a new strategy to survive this sort of manipulation. It may require separate trading accounts for the various trading strategies. . . And instead of only looking at which stocks are moving. . . or which sectors are heating up. . we will be spending more of our time determining which type of trading has the clearest advantage and how to make the best trades according to the strategy and not the company . . . . .all tailored to that time of day and market condition. [There will be much more on this at a later time. This is nothing new. . .I've been at work on this for a long time.] Finally, one more thing bothers me. Remember when I used the phrase the "Poverty Effect". . .as a counter to the "Wealth Effect" ? Well, this market dump has been devastating to many people. Some lost more than they ever had!! Many lost 60, 70, 80 or more percent of their entire stock market portfolio. Were these people invested carelessly in dot coms and risky tech stocks? No. I am talking about the millions of investors holding stocks like A.T. & T. . . which lost 2/3rds of its value this year. . . and is the 4th largest holding in the U.S. Or those in some of the other top held stocks in America. . .like WorldCom, McDonalds, Disney, Wal-Mart, Lucent, Intel, Dell, Compaq, IBM. This year has been brutal on most every investor. The only wealth effect were the billions that went into the pockets of investment bankers and corporate officials and insiders of top IPOs and high-fliers. . . a few fortunate individuals who cashed out of dot coms and walked away from the markets at its highs. . . .and some tough-as-nails soldiers who dug in and survived by being good traders. The rest are not worried about how to pay capital gains taxes in 2000. . . But are rather concerned with how to maintain their current standard of living after suffering such losses. And I won't even go into the potential long-term effects of a Poverty Effect on the economy. . . that is not my intent. . just to show that while we are being sold a bill-of-goods about how well we are all doing. . . our pockets are being picked. [Sorry about these posts being so long. . . I think they are in direct proportion to the size of the window and panoramic view that I have here at the hospital. Today I spotted a shiny new office building overlooking a large park with the Parthenon, etc. on the West Side. I wonder if we would ALL be better off if I were to get a small office there. . . . >smirk< . . . away from that cardinal and the distraction of working out of home. . . .food for thought.] 'Nite all. . . and thanks again for all your kind words, thoughts, prayers and general concern. It is a comfort for us all knowing there is an army out there on our behalf!! I am blessed to be allowed to father these 4 fine teenagers. . the past several years. And I am blessed to help lead such a fine group of individuals as yourselves. Rande Is