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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (255)	10/26/2000 3:09:29 PM
From: quasar_1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Real Estate... Metrics have never meant anything at the margin (the last clearing price). I brought up the point about these under performing stocks to address the 'overvalued' view that many frequently bandy about. (By the way the three companies I mentioned are all technology companies-very much new economy.) Not only the advance/decline line but the number of stocks beneath their 200 day MA's (a simplistic measure of LT trend) has lived below 50% for a long time now. It has its occasional crossover above 50% but this is short lived. What does all of this blather mean. For the most part we've been in a stealth bear market for a long time, possibly since 1998. Most stocks have been falling since then. Many are fundamentally undervalued. A few are priced for perfection and have dominated the composition of the averages. Don't believe what you hear at face value. The media, analysts, message boards are filled with far more myth and dis-information than truth. The truth is always pretty simple to discover. You only have to look for yourself instead of accepting somebody's repackaging efforts. Be very wary of simple cause and effect relationships. Higher earnings 6 months out mean higher stock prices...prices only fall in a rising rate environment and visa versa...short term price reflects fundamentals...x or y are inflationary/deflationary—all the many "x means y" myths that often have no basis in fact. It is primarily psychology that dominates marginal price decisions. This is a herd, pure and simple. How do you know this? When you see your biotech stock going down because Nortel missed it's earnings estimate, you have a pretty good idea this is a market effect (psychological) not a company specific or group specific fundamental event. On just about every day of the recent downturn almost every stock I own (across many groups) goes down or up on the same day within minutes of each other. Can the Naz go below 2000/1000? Of course it can. Can it go next year? It could go next month. It could also go up dramatically or go violently sideways. (The market action since March). What does any of this price movement have to do with reality? Painfully little... Q

To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (255)	10/26/2000 3:45:27 PM
From: excardog	Respond to of 74559

Thursday October 26, 2:14 pm Eastern Time Press Release Danger! You Are Now Entering the 'Perfect Energy Crisis,' NGI Reports DULLES, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Oct. 26, 2000--With gas prices near $5/MMBtu, oil above $30/bbl and power prices spiking 700% in Southern California this summer, the signs of struggle in the energy sector are clear. It's the required response that still seems a little cloudy, according to an article this week in NGI's Daily Gas Price Index, which is available on the Internet at intelligencepress.com. Visit the web site for critical information about what many are calling a serious crisis developing in the energy industry, a crisis Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan recently said could slow down the nation's economic growth. The energy industry would be well advised to respond to these troubling signs as the U.S. responded to the smoke rising from Pearl Harbor in 1941, according to Matthew R. Simmons, president of Simmons and Company International. But for many energy producers and generators, government restrictions and red tape block the way. ``We are as unprepared to fight the decade-long energy crisis as the U.S. and Europe were unprepared for war as the 1930s came to an end.....,'' Simmons this week told an emergency conference on the nation's apparent energy shortage. The conference titled ``Energy Shortages in an Energy Rich America: Why?'' was organized by Oklahoma Gov. Frank Keating and the Heritage Foundation and was broadcast live over the Internet from the governor's mansion in Oklahoma City. Read an in-depth report on the conference in NGI's Daily Gas Price Index at intelligencepress.com. The energy crisis will get worse before it gets better, most speakers at the conference agreed. ``Today we are in the early stages of a severe energy crisis, not an oil shock, but an energy crisis. It's the equivalent of a perfect storm --- the convergence of shortages in all three energy sources: oil, natural gas and electricity,'' said Simmons. ``We are now entering the perfect energy crisis.'' There's no way to tell how bad it might get or how high prices might go, he said. ``I only know the limits we face and the time it will take to expand our energy capacity while we simultaneously rebuild the entire energy base brick-by-brick from wellheads to tankers to rigs to refineries and power plants. All need to be expanded and rebuilt simultaneously. Do my costs have to double or triple to merely afford this Marshal Plan type energy reconstruction? I would hope not. Until someone prepares a rough blueprint and then gets a few bids on the process, no one knows.'' But according to many other speakers at the conference, the government is severely lacking when it comes to developing a policy blueprint. Despite the fact that 96% of the new power generation being planned will be fueled by natural gas and a doubling of the rig count will be required to meet impending demand growth, the government has done little to lift the barriers blocking exploration and production on federal lands. NGI's Daily and Weekly Gas Price Index and Natural Gas Intelligence are three in-depth energy newsletters with detailed energy price information published by Intelligence Press Inc. Intelligence Press, Inc. also sponsors GasMart/Power, the annual energy conference devoted to an examination of the most important energy issues today. For more information on the conference visit www.gasmart.com . For details on the publications visit intelligencepress.com .