Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bob wallace who wrote (779)	10/26/2000 7:22:12 PM
From: budweeder	Respond to of 2063

Hi Bob; If I didn't see my name as the sendee of your note, I would not recognize myself...me...know that I'm right?? ....ggggg not me, the one thing I have found is that I can't time the market, and neither can anyone else...sorry if you take this personal, Bob,...but neither can you.....I do hold that opinion, but I was not "taking a shot" at you in my post today to Tom...only that AIM thought it was a rational day to do some buying, and the timing boards have been full of gloom lately...... I would hate to see you leave the board, especially on my account...on the other hand I would have to candidly tell you that I don't make any investment decisions based on your market guesses, or anyone else's....I put them in the same group with horoscopes, sometimes its fun to read, but meaningless. If I have hurt your feelings, I apologize. Regards, Bud

To: bob wallace who wrote (779)	11/3/2000 9:44:15 AM
From: bob wallace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

assuming this thread is still for trading UOPIX with or without AIM, I have come across a promising and simple method of trading this fund The characteristic of UOPIX is that it moves twice as much on the NDX on a daily basis (remembering always that does not mean that UOPIX will out perform NDX by 100% in the long run). as we have seen lately, some of these moves can be as high as 18% in a single day. also, it is quite possible to time daily purchases of UOPIX using readily availabe realtime quotes of NDX what has bother me about AIM, and even about the scale method that I am currently using, is that often one is not able to take advanatge of these huge moves (for ecxample, even buying at the low of 48 does not allow partcipation on the two huge daily runs since then if you are waiting for a sale in the 70's) so on a lark, I ran a spreadsheet simulation based on buying each and every down day in the UOPIX. the way I implemented this was to buy $2,000 for each 1% down move in the NDX (so if the NDX was down say 3.5% then I would buy $7k of UOPIX) I then sold at 5% (or better) gain for that particluar buy. the resuts are quote outstanding - using the 2k for each down 1% thde reults were 20% gain from June 26 to Nov 1. also ran the test for 1k per 1% decline and for 3k - the results were proportional, ie 30% gains for the 3k test. naturally the more money invested for each 1% down, the bigger account necessary to fund the project the following are considerations: 1) the large down moves in UOPIX are not taken advantage of because this is not a shorting system - I have not figured out how to deal with short trades that go "bad" (with long trades that go "bad", you just hold until the price rises and they become "good") 2) you can hold one or two buys that make take a LONG time to be sold (in this test there is one trade of 50 shares which will not be sold until UOPIX reaches 92, which could be a LONG time 3)you may run out of shares to sell in brief but straight up rises in UOPIX 4) items 3 and 4 can be accommodated by changes in the sell strategy. for example, to counter running out of shares, some sells could be for the dollar amount (rather than share amount), thus adding shares to the account rather than dollars. this would also help offest the "stranded" shares (problem 3) buy slowly reducing the avgerage share price for shares held in the account this method does take advantage of the larger daily swings in UOPIX and could indeed turn out to be a very profitable approach over the long term Bob