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Strategies & Market Trends : Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: OldAIMGuy who wrote (780)	10/30/2000 12:55:27 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2063

Tom; I took the time to look at some derivatives over the weekend. Short term money ( speculators ) are more bearish than bullish. Long term BIG money is more bullish than bearish. Lets face it BONDS have beaten the stock market ( and bad ) since Jan, the BIG money bets via derivatives are now betting that cycle is ready to change. ---------- I don't have the time or resources to check this out the way I would like to, and haven't got the data to back test the results of past bond/stock yield bets via longer term derivatives. But any way..bets on the OEX that are now paired off and "locked" have a yrly yield of 6.6% at this time. Being that is better than Bond yields & I take it as bullish. I also feel that a lot of bond traders are looking at this and haven't sold off bonds yet to swap places as they expect the spread to improve even more. ----- Anyway short term money is bearish, longer term bullish By this I don't mean I think we go on down short term.. as a matter of fact I think the short term money bets are wrong more often than right. I'll go with the Longer Term Money getting on the right side of the curve, much more often than the STM..and getting there sooner too. Jim PS Hope we gap down a tad on the open, then rally.