Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (111274)	10/26/2000 8:45:00 PM
From: Warren Gates	Respond to of 164684

AMAZON is a retailer. My question is when will these analysts come up with a metric similar to traditional retailers same-store sales. Of course AMAZON showed big sales growth this quarter from the prior year because they're expanding the business. The more mature side of the business though (books, DVD, music) should be analyzed though by itself and given a valuation. This segment is showing a growth of 30% year over year growth. Great but not so great considering that AMAZON's customer base also expanded by some 30%. A good enough metric for these retailers is to try to figure out 'SAME-CUSTOMER' sales by using the sales in this segment divided by the #customers, then comparing it to last years. And what do you get, some kind of growth that is actually on par with traditional retailers. This really means that this segment of Amazon's business is maturing fast. No retail analyst would give more than 2X sales on this particular segment, thereby valuing it at no more than 3 Billion. How do you value now the rest of the business. Surely less than 3 billion. Total IMO should be less than 6 Billion. Bezos knows that. In fact, even at this level, he would be willing to sell some equity again for another 2billion debt. But by doing so, he would pretty much tell the market what he thinks of his company's potential. Question is, will they buy the Amazon story again?