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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (38874)	10/26/2000 8:47:52 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Cary, I agree that AMAT should get into the lithography market in a big way; ASML would be the prime candidate IMHO. As for where we are headed, I think it would be quite arrogant for anyone to say definitively where AMAT will be 10 or 20 years hence. As IC's increase their penetration into everyday products, and those products become cheaper to buy and therefore more available to the masses, the limit is only that of an engineer's imagination. This is not pie-in-the-sky thinking; we are seeing it now with cell phones, MP3 players etc. How many people 10 years ago said we would hit a wall at .25 microns? Predicting where technology is ultimately headed usually only has one end effect; that of making the predictor look more foolish than a Dial-A-Psychic. Brian

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (38874)	10/26/2000 9:08:17 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

re: a AMAT/ASML merger could eventually capture 70-80% of the market.: Wonder what the Justice Dept. would think of that? We know they are sniffing around AMAT already. I remember some straight-line extrapolations, on MSFT (back when it was a MustOwn stock), which took the previous growth rate (in the stock and/or EPS), the current PE (and/or stock price), and extrapolated out a few years, ending up with a market cap bigger the the U.S. GDP. And lots of people took those calculations, and those future stock prices, seriously. Fewer, today.