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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (13550)	10/27/2000 2:15:36 AM
From: couldawoulda	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Appreciate the thoughtful reply Raymond. JDSU, SDLI etc. would be placed on the f/o food chain where? Kramer's mistake is that he is placing the component makers on the chain last, when in fact if you look at it from the opposite end - the bottom going up - you would understand that the demand while sure to slow in the future, perhaps four to five years out, will remain robust for the time being. JDSU's current p/e I believe reflects a stock price looking out into a few years, and does not warrant visionary outlooks that delineate this inevitable slow down to come off into the distance. How forward-looking do you want the markets to get? So while WCOM is announcing cut backs, the argument is how many companies exist in the market place today that perform the same duties as a WCOM does, perhaps do it far more efficiently and will not see a similar need for spending cuts anytime soon? What I'm trying to say is that while you are right, the market suddenly got spooked over the last few sessions thinking a spending slow down would happen in an instance and effect the earnings of these companies like JDSU today. JDSU I believe with their earnings this evening proved this. Furthermore, with rapidly expanding technology it wouldn't be unwarranted to think that the bigger businesses will survive the slow down through basic r&d which will effectively counteract the slow down altogether. The market can be somewhat short-sighted at times, but when you look at the bigger picture, it seems to make a hell of a lot of sense. I simply cannot foresee 9 quarters into the future, can you? Now if on the other hand, JDSU's p/e was way out there, then that's of course a different story. Do the math and break up JDSU's growth provided by the guidance given by the management this evening and compare that with the market close p/e on this stock. You'll see what I mean. good night.