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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (820)	10/26/2000 10:25:45 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1805

I know.....open up new markets! How about Antartica Telephone, and don't forget New Guinea, or Madagascar Tel, too. Can JDSU be increasing their forecasts, capacity and builds in the face of all this? For real? Believable real? We've got a lot of investigating to do, and real soon. Steve

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (820)	10/27/2000 2:01:09 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Hi A.L., Do you want me to call the SI staff on this one or should I leave it to you? Your CIEN post last Friday was a classic and this may be a topper. It so nice to see the lucidity of the presentation, matched by irrefutable historical fact. I must say, if I were to guess what AMCCs fate is from here, your views are about as close a match as I can see to reality. I picked this up a trade on the first break, in at 155. I couldn't believe how the wind got knocked out of it so precipitously from there, but hung on because this one snaps back with a vengeance. Notoriously so in July. Now I know of others who are in the same boat I am. If this thing gets back to Wednesday mornings level tomorrow, there's going to be selling pressure as swing traders exit whole. I'm wondering where you see the buying power coming in to drive this back to the $180 level? Frankly, my contention is that the NT announcement and subsequent parsing has amounted to a "tipping point" in the sector. I'd think that folks like me, who weren't afraid of a dramatic slowdown in demand at that time now see two ominous developments. The first being the parlous state of the bond markets, with the spread between Treasuries and BB+ and lowers at their widest point since the chaos of summer/fall 1998. And on the other hand, we have the typical upstart things like Velio velio.com that are promising to eat the lunch of the likes of PMCS and AMCC. (Velio already has dedicated board locations on CIEN and SCMR line cards, chips are due Q4.) Anyway, I'm being repetitive to your post. Just want to say, I doubt you're too far off with the QCOM comparison. And your notion of being able to overlay charts of differing time periods is intriguing. Seems like a nifty project for an XML programmer. :) Pretty spooky, huh? Vanishingly, Casper* *http://www.ducksbreath.com/vault/000126.htm (The last line says it all) <g>

To: A.L. Reagan who wrote (820)	10/27/2000 4:55:58 PM
From: Beltropolis Boy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

>Good question you raise then: where the hell is all this stuff ending up?< we could certainly debate the demand/capex for metro vs. long-haul deployment scenarios, but for now, here's a sample of recent optical build-out announcements, including operator and vendor. sidebar to TD: please rally the mid-town hedgies to vote Cramer OFF THE ISLAND! ----- 360networks -- 81,530 miles of fiber linking 100+ cities in North and South America; Euro metro including London, Paris, Geneva, Marseilles, Lyon and Milan -- Alcatel (sub. equipment), Nortel (management systems), Sycamore (optical switches) Aerie Networks -- 8.9 million fiber miles connecting 194 U.S. cities -- Corning (LEAF fiber), Nortel (OPTera) Cogent Communications -- all-optical IP network spanning U.S. and connecting 13 major cities -- Avanex (PowerMux Channel Processor and PowerExchanger Optical Add/Drop) Cox Communications -- nationwide metro DWDM -- Sorrento (GigaMux metro DWDM and electronic photonic concentrators [EPC]) EPIK Communications -- metro DWDM in Atlanta, Miami and Orlando -- ONI Systems (ONLINE metro transport platform) Fujian Mobile Comm -- three 10 Gbps backbone optical networks in Fujian Province -- Lucent (WaveStar TDM 10G) JCI Corp -- proprietary DWDM-enabled network in North America -- Lucent (WaveStar OLS 400G DWDM system and LambdaRouter optical switch) Korea Telecom -- metro DWDM in 7 Korean cities -- Ciena (MultiWave Metro System) LDCOM -- nationwide network connecting 20 cities in France -- Sycamore (transport and SN4000/8000 optical switches) Pro Futuro -- Polish network (nazdrovia!) -- Alcatel Telecomunicacoes de Mocambique -- 1,000-km terrestrial and submarine network -- Alcatel