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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (38878)	10/26/2000 11:12:29 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Respond to of 70976

Also, you only have to put up 50% of the stock price to go short. So the bear gains should really be double what Tito stated. The other important factor is the time horizon. Shorts need to be proven right over a much shorter period of time. If you look at SOX and assume that a long bought in at the bottom of a cycle and held on till the bottom of the next, then the gains are not as impressive, so you'd have to wait for the next top. The bottom line is that cyclical stocks are not best for a buyNhold strategy. That said, so long as the society (and perhaps humans) are progressing, the general market trend will be upward and the bulls will do better in the long run than the bears. ST

To: Kirk © who wrote (38878)	10/29/2000 10:57:44 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Re "I like being 100% bullish (i.e. long term) with the majority of my portfolio and then sell 15% or so after I get an 8 bagger so I then have more dip buying funds." Your strategy is really a Good one, something that this Thread could follow. I also like to have Cash most of the time to take advantage of the Dips. "Sell SOME on the rise to have some cash on the Dip." --- something like that is in my Profile. Unfortunately at the Bottom when it's the best time to Buy, I usually run out of cash --- so in order to get "new cash," I sell say 100 shares and use the proceeds to buy 5 LEAP Calls (giving up 100 to get in return 500 equivalent shares). RE "a 50% bear needs a 100% bull just to get whole again." That is true for shares we already have. But for shares we buy at the 50% Dip, we get 100% gain when the stock goes back up to even. Re "Taxes erode the gains even if you are good." For the AMAT Bear, I don't think he could take advantage of that favorable tax of 20%. Recent AMAT history shows that a Bear market last less than 18 months. A Bull market may not last for at least 18 months but the AMAT Bull can do most of his trading inside an IRA where he doesn't pay taxes outright. To Everybody in this Thread, we could help each other a lot if we share our investment experiences in AMAT --- whether we use the Bullish way or the Bearish way. Thank you!