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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (13581)	10/27/2000 10:50:30 AM
From: K. Bloomquist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Thanks for a fantastic post. Regardless of the true nature of demand for optical equipment, the perception of that demand among many big-money investors has changed to 'possible top', for the very good reasons as outlined in your post. They will think (and act) like each quarter will be the top, never committing their money to the sector, and consistently shorting the stocks, until the top finally does come. For now it may be a no win situation. Two possible saviors; some big aquisitions at substantial premiums, and/or absolutely huge money (ie Janus and Invesco) become convinced that demand is not slowing for the next year and throw more of their dollars in. Invesco has had large inflows and seem to be committed to the sector.

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (13581)	10/29/2000 1:41:29 AM
From: Eashoa' M'sheekha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Your OSI Model Has One More Layer. All of this : 1)End users: You, me and everyone else with straw into the cloud, Wilshire 5000 firms and NFIB members, among others. Must ultimately lead to something useful,entertaining ,or otherwise , that people are willing to pay for or have the convenience of participating in or receiving as a service. Therein lies an eighth layer of the model – content for the user. But the bandwidth is restrictive and inhibits the creative forces who’s ideas place the largest demand.The business community has the privilege of participating in its build-out, but is there enough thought being put into what people really want to do with the technology and what they are willing to pay for?Is the method of payment too cumbersome? Does the horse lead the buggy? Its the commercialization and utilization of the bandwidth , along with the many B-B/B-C/B-M apps. , that will keep the demand strong for the next few years.Wireless applications haven't even begin to take hold in North America.The audience is listening , waiting for whatever may attract them to working with more freedom , but the shift may be hampered by an inherent fear of doing things differently. Once the wireless build-out begins in earnest , with 3G able to pump 1M or so per user , this will place more demand on the networks, and optics is the safest way to ensure you are ready for the demand. Maybe one layer of the model is out of step with the other ,that is certainly open for discussion , but the icing on the cake will ultimately ( if not intimately ) be the acceptance and enjoyment of the technology as just another part of every day life , and the widespread applications and usefulness that will eventually encourage people young and old alike to participate. The dot.com model has not failed entirely.Finding itself less approachable than the average person was willing to discomfort themselves in addressing,and relying on advertising to foot the bill, they are going through a metamorphosis,if you will.They have realized what sells and what does't at this stage of the game,which was a big question in many folks mind. What is slowly changing is the fear of doing business over the internet,with the introduction of digital signatures and encryption logarithms that puts the average user more and more at ease with each passing day. Entertainment too will be a driving force, as will VOIP,pay-per-view and the like.You will hear a commercial one day saying “ The Internet – Don’t Leave Home Without It “ <GGG> Great post BTW.Liked the analogy. Regards. KC