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To: Art Baeckel who wrote (3021)	10/27/2000 8:54:16 AM
From: willcousa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3813

That was a nice summary of the situation as I see it too. Now the big question - How quickly will the market come to see the reality of things?

To: Art Baeckel who wrote (3021)	10/27/2000 9:46:07 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 3813

I think you need to use the word CYCLICAL in your analysis and adjust the conclusions accordingly.

To: Art Baeckel who wrote (3021)	10/27/2000 9:55:43 AM
From: LemurHouse	Respond to of 3813

Thanks. Not sure I accept all of the arguments presented in that post, but I certainly agree with the general sentiment that there's good value & growth prospects in many semi-equips right now. Re the NVLS conf call, there wasn't much in there that wasn't already in Wednesday night's press release. Looks like a very good strategic move for both companies. Market seemed to agree yesterday. (Unusual that the acquiring company is up on the news.) There is to be a second conf call next week, after the details of the agreement have been released. We'll know more then.

To: Art Baeckel who wrote (3021)	10/27/2000 3:39:19 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 3813

One more down day here and I buy more. I think it's finally time...course I thought that all of September and October<g>. sf

To: Art Baeckel who wrote (3021)	10/28/2000 10:57:07 AM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 3813

Hi Art, Excellent summary of why this sector is so attractive. I agree with everything you said - so I'll match it and raise you with another dimension of this sector that I can't believe people don't discuss more: This semi sector doesn't get rewarded with outrageously high multiples like you mention occur in the internet/biomedicine sectors.This lack of high multiples is most often justified because capacity expansion often gets overbuilt. This leads to huge peaks and valleys of orders.Accordingly the multiples never really blow-off , a feature I like, as I think it offers a quick recovery capability. It is this cyclical nature that I have learned to love.If one buys at the ridiculous lows that ARE always found at the bottoms and fights the greed off somewhere in the 400-500 % return from the absolute low of each cycle - these little jewels have made many a millionaire.If they kept their powder dry and waited for the next trough the compounding of wealth can be very quick(over 10-15 years). I have been in these wonderful companies since 1984.I have missed my share of tops and held through several troughs - so during those depressing times I called myself a long term investor(rationalized). Fortunately I have sold out in the 95/97and 2000 cycle.I am quite frankly surprised that this sector has offered me this great value - accross the entire sector, so soon after the last top.I'm not complaining - in fact I'm really excited about it. This sector is a market timers dream.It also is a "buy and hold - position traders" friend in that ,the cycles occur so frequently.Undoubtedly renewed with the plethora of great new products being created by the industries continuous cost reductions.As new cycle lows drive product prices to new lows it insures the industry's rebirth with product innovation. This sector is in it's infancy - I suspect the telegraph,train, and automobile sectors all had there frequent cycles and rebirths from innovation and price reductions as well. My greatest fear ,is the maturation of this industry. When Rick Hill says "we could have hit our sales numbers - if we paid spot prices for products and incurred speacial shipping expenses - but instead we chose to mind our margins" it rattles my hopes.That's maturity! - I REALLY HATE IT WHEN THAT HAPPENS. I fear a contagion.<vbg> This type of wise management takes the "cowboy" -"blow and go" out of this sector's cyclicality.If these companies don't over expand and jump thru hoops to build down their backlog ,I'm afraid we might get "level production techniques" ( a concept currently practiced by General Motors ). It is not aggressive but it is very profitable. I'd sure miss the peaks and valleys.It is my single most favorite characteristic of this entire sector.I'm not a guru trader but I'm sharp enough to know that if you buy in the bottom 10% and sell in the top 35% - you can get rich riding the 350% in between. I do believe this sector rides the wave of a megatrend that will ultimately develope into a mature industry .One that just builds replacement/upgrades and that will be enough to sustain the leaders that rise to the top.We're a long way off from that - I HOPE. I for one, want to ride that big cycle wave at least one more time.It is the common sense managers who want to smooth out these cycles that scare the heck out of me.I guess then I'll just own my Blue Chippers like Nvls as they get rewarded with high multiples because they will be boring mainstream mature companies sitting on top of the largest pile of money ever amassed by an industry. I'm sure gonna miss those "no brainer contrarian cycles". Thanks for your great common sense and clear thinking. Bob