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Technology Stocks : SDL, Inc. [Nasdaq: SDLI] -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RoseCampion who wrote (3378)	10/28/2000 1:23:38 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 3951

understood on Implied Volatility argument, but my take is... option side washed out two days after equity side did but mainly on the nearby contracts different story on distant contracts, which I hold March JDSU 95 calls seem still ok at U=95 on Tuesday close, mar95 was at 19 at U=81 on Wednesday 10am, mar95 was at 12 at U=80 on Friday 10am, mar95 was at 11 at U=77 on Friday close, mar95 now just under 10 I smell pessimism in nearby's tied to lower likelihood of imminent recovery / Jim

To: RoseCampion who wrote (3378)	10/28/2000 8:21:50 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3951

most conservative mony to be made in sdli opt. QJVFL Bid 62 5/8 Ask 65 1/4 SDL INC JUN 260 (100 SHS) I did following work for myself and thought to share with you all. Buying options is not just for better ROI but also limits your loss in the stock to $66. Which many of us have seeen loose in a matter of hours. Following math shows QJVFL to be $109 by december if jdsu stays at current price $84. QJVFL to be $130 by May 2000 assuming I loose all time value. Below is analyst target price made in from May 2000 to Now. For purpose of most conservative calulation I am taking the smallest target price made in May of 2000 of $120 for jdsu, implying 12 mo target to May 2001 to be $120. 120 jdsu target 3.8 =456 sdli target May 2001 260 strike price +66 option price = 326 total cost of sdli to june 2001. 456-326= 130 profit ( 66 cost 2=132 meets my 100% test.) 843.8 = 319 sdli target dec 2001. (if jdsu was to remain at current price into december at ............... closing of sdli/jdsu merger then sdli would be $319) $66/8 months =8.25 2 months =16.5 ( loss of time value by december) $109 by december sdli option (QJVFL) value (319- 260 strike + 66 option - 16.5 loss of time) QJVFL Bid 62 5/8 Ask 65 1/4 SDL INC JUN 260 (100 SHS) I am using above the worst case and higher then current asking price of $66 to come up with the most conservative numbers. Any opinions? -sonki ========================= =========== Company Symbol Analyst Price Target Date Mentioned Time SDL Inc SDLI CIBC Wrld Mkts $325 10/25/00 SDL Inc SDLI Wit SoundView $460 10/20/00 <<<121 jdsu value SDL Inc SDLI USB Piper Jaffray $760 10/20/00 <<<< based on $200 for jdsu below. SDL Inc SDLI Salomon Smth Brny $410 09/21/00 SDL Inc SDLI ABN AMRO $453 07/21/00 SDL Inc SDLI Sands Brothers $345 06/13/00 SDL Inc SDLI ABN AMRO $322 06/02/00 SDL Inc SDLI CIBC Wrld Mkts $325 06/02/00 SDL Inc SDLI W.R. Hambrecht $275 05/26/00 ============ jdsu erning was announce on 10 /26/00 Company Symbol Analyst Price Target Date Mentioned Time JDS Uniphase JDSU CE Unterberg Towbin $120 10/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU USB Piper Jaffray $200 10/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU W.R. Hambrecht $140 10/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU PaineWebber $250 10/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU ABN AMRO $171 10/27/00 follwing before erning JDS Uniphase JDSU CIBC Wrld Mkts $150 10/25/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU SG Cowen $135 10/11/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU Lehman Brothers $130 09/26/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU ABN AMRO $168 09/22/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU Salomon Smth Brny $155 09/21/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU ABN AMRO $164 08/08/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU Mrgn Stnly Dn Wttr $160 07/28/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU CIBC Wrld Mkts $150 07/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU USB Piper Jaffray $200 07/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU CE Unterberg Towbin $165 07/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU First Union Sec $225 07/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU W.R. Hambrecht $180 07/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU PaineWebber $250 07/27/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU CSFB $150 07/25/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU PaineWebber $220 07/12/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU CE Unterberg Towbin $160 07/11/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU CIBC Wrld Mkts $150 06/23/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU ABN AMRO $164 06/23/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU W.R. Hambrecht $180 06/23/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU Sands Brothers $150 06/13/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU Raymond James $150 06/13/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU ABN AMRO $144 06/02/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU W.R. Hambrecht $180 05/26/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU W.R. Hambrecht $180 05/19/00 JDS Uniphase JDSU DLJ $120 05/11/00 JDS Uniphase Corp JDSU SG Cowen $300 3/1/00