Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Kimmel who wrote (839)	10/27/2000 10:58:41 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Hi Michael, Thanks for the comments. Your lead reminds me of what one broker had to say about VSE stocks. She said that on that market, there is no long run, cause in the long run, all issues go to zero. So, I'm stuck with a short term view. A view that says that AMCC has been price for the vortex of hypergrowth, and that now we seem to be at the inflection point where that whizdumb is becoming more suspect. As far as wireless modems, I've heard some enthusiasm for the concept. Looking at the subscriber rates of MCOM, I'm not seeing the customer putting their money where their mouth is. In fact, the facts are chilling. Here's what was stated in the latest company financial report: metricom.com "Ricochet, Fastest Wireless Internet Service, Launched Nationwide" Total subscriber count at (third) quarter end was 25,900, including 23,400 subscribers of our 28.8 kbps service and 2,500 subscribers of the newly launched 128 kbps service. This compared with subscriber count at the end of the second quarter 2000 of 26,300. So, where's the demand, where's the satisfaction, where's the profit? This company is losing customers, not gaining them. Not now. For the last 5 years this company has been offering service and now has fewer than 25,000 customers. This is trifling. They have, to all appearances, been the leader in this arena. And they're going farther and farther into the red. This doesn't lend itself to the rosy scenario crowd's world views very easily, try as they may. I'm thinking, you're also going to need a whole bunch of fibre to get that data to its wireless destination. Aggregate 100 end users on a cell, say they've been promised 2Mbps service. Assume peak sharing at a factor of 0.2. Thus, backhaul requirement from the cell would be 20x2=40Mbps. OC links are measured in Gbps, the current generation being OC-192 or the equivalent of about 10Gbps. If you do the math, you'll see that the demand I've indicated is about 2 orders of magnitude shy of current capacity in the typical high speed link. Where's the demand? Regards, Ray