Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (34250)	10/27/2000 1:49:24 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

Paul, >>>> Out of curiosity, is the Dow holding its 1932 log trendline? I think it may have broken it on the most recent downswing. stockcharts.com <<<<< You are really going to get the HiTECH BULLs nervous - look how quiet this thread is now. Yes, it does appear that the DOW broke its log trendline to the downside. Now tie that with your position that the trend is now heading towards value stocks. One way to interpret the 2 Charts is that as the DOW heads downs, since it broke the 1932 log trendline, it will not decline as fast the NAZ/NDX/HiTECHs since the DOW:NAZ RATIO broke out to the upside in favor of the DOW. You are now really going to scare the HiTECH BULLs.gggggg Boy, this thread is really quiet. Guess it gets busy when times are bullish/bullish news like the time of the BRINKER issue, which was actually a selling opportunity. Dont tell me this is turning into a contrarian thread.gggggggg

To: Paul Shread who wrote (34250)	10/29/2000 7:16:40 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

Paul, Out of curiosity, is the Dow holding its 1932 log trendline? I think it may have broken it on the most recent downswing. Another interesting question sent me off to the calculator <ggg> I don't think the 1932 trendline can be considered all that precise in view of only two touches and the extreme sensitivity of a projected value from that far back, but FWIW it comes out to 10,423 for October 2000. Dow clearly broke it, but has regained the line for now. If you draw a line across the tops from 1937 to 1959, it projects to only 6813, a point I and many others hope we never see again. A regression line on the monthly averages (high+low+close)/3 starting at the low in June 1932 may be a better representation of the long term trend; that line is only at 5304. If you raise that line to run through the peak in March 1937, it is currently at 9000 and will not break 10,000 for another 21 months. 31 months will put it over 10,500. The regression line itself (not raised) will cross 10,000 in about 10_1/2 YEARS. What all of this suggests to me is that Dow is still well above the trend from after the crash in the 1930s. Now for those who need a touch of upside optimism, and perhaps to illustrate that the numbers can "prove" almost anything, suppose we go back to before the crash. I only have data to October 1928 from Yahoo. The regression line using all the data from then on is flatter than the one using only post crash data; it is currently at only 4843 and will take almost 13 years to reach 10,000. But if you raise that line to the peak in 1929 it is now over 20,600. Who's to say based on those projections where Dow should be today? Dow is still comfortably above the 26-year regression line going back to the lows in September 1974 (about 18 months ahead), but comfortably below that line raised to the peaks in 1975 or 1998. The line for the last 10 years from the low in October 1990 is above the current levels, running about 8 months ahead at 11,781. If Dow ever catches that line it will be at a new all time high. Dan