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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (5150)	10/29/2000 8:40:23 AM
From: David Lee Smith	Respond to of 19219

J.T. the MomentuMonkey Indicator updated 10/27 upgraded momentum to POSITIVE, as you indicated. However, the target price the model calculates is exactly the close we had on Friday! That's the first time that has ever occurred. The model indicates the market is FAIRLY VALUED here (taking into account momentum. It is over-valued if you ignore momentum). My gut feeling is neutral. There is heavy resistance at 1420 on the S&P 500 Index. In addition, there was a recent failed test of that level. Conventional technical analysis says this market is going in the toilet fast. On the other hand, there is big cash balances in money market and mutual fund cash levels are very high too. Also, tax selling related to mutual funds ends October 31 and one would expect that there has been significant tax selling to offset big gains in low basis technology stocks sold during the year to meet fund holder redemptions. My gut is that the S&P 500 stays in the 1350-1400 trading range and that the NAZ rallies to 3600 because most of the tax selling came from NAZ stocks, not the big names.

To: J.T. who wrote (5150)	10/31/2000 11:27:42 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

David, I think if anything one can learn that momentum is a lagging indicator and will never get you positioned for the kill. As you well know, momentum follows the herd... it does not lead... One must think 6 to 12 moves ahead like Kasparov in chess. The herd is gona get set back up for another fall after this rally runs its course. Best Regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (5150)	10/31/2000 11:31:50 PM
From: J.T.	Respond to of 19219

The trap was set...Read it and Reap... Major Market Indexes - October 31, 2000 Symbol Index Last Change %Chg High Low INDU DJ Industrials 10971.14 +135.37 +1.2 10995.41 10812.26 TRAN DJ Transports 2744.62 +58.01 +2.2 2748.15 2671.16 UTIL DJ Utilities 393.43 +1.37 +0.3 394.36 387.01 NDX NASDAQ 100 3282.30 +201.23 +6.5 3304.62 3120.21 COMP NASDAQ Composit 3369.63 +178.23 +5.6 3379.08 3226.62 NYA NYSE Composite 666.02 +11.49 +1.8 666.48 654.53 SPX S&P 500 Stocks 1429.40 +30.74 +2.2 1432.22 1398.66 MID S&P 400 MidCap 520.17 +12.7 +2.5 521.12 507.48 OEX S&P 100 Stock 750.93 +18.16 +2.5 752.43 732.77 IXCO NASDAQ HighTech 1986.81 +113.44 +6.1 1997.98 1895.44 PSE PSE High Tech 971.53 +46.25 +5.0 976.39 925.28 MSH Morgan StanTech 928.11 +38.74 +4.4 930.37 889.37 SOX Semiconductor 741.83 +38.80 +5.5 752.66 701.66 XMI AMEXMajorMarket 1057.89 +6.63 +0.6 1060.06 1041.37 XAX AMEX Composite 909.30 +7.14 +0.8 909.62 898.37 WSX Wilshire Sm.Cap 829.85 +24.01 +3.0 829.93 805.84 TNX 10 Year T-Note 5.757 +0.029 +0.5 5.761 5.694 TYX 30 Year T-Bond 5.784 +0.038 +0.7 5.790 5.731 XAU PHLX GoldSilver 43.87 -0.80 -1.8 44.75 43.74 XOI AMEX Oil & Gas 518.87 +2.70 +0.5 520.33 512.05 XVG Value Line (Geo)410.33 +9.77 +2.4 410.33 400.56 RUI Russell 1000 763.06 +19.19 +2.6 764.12 743.87 RUT Russell 2000 497.68 +14.96 +3.1 497.68 482.72 RUA Russell 3000 788.02 +20.07 +2.6 788.72 767.95 **************************************************** Symbol Index Last Change %Chg High Low XAL AIRLINE (AMEX) 150.36 +2.03 +1.4 150.36 147.64 BKX BANK PHLX/KBW 870.56 +14.20 +1.7 872.97 850.62 BTK BIOTECH (AMEX) 734.14 +36.97 +5.3 734.14 697.17 CEX CHEMICAL S&P 388.60 +4.14 +1.1 391.84 381.06 GHA COMPHARDWARE GS 558.78 +28.93 +5.5 560.70 529.85 GSV COMPUTER SERVICES 160.41 +1.41 +0.9 160.62 157.87 GSO COMPUTER SOFTWARE 412.84 +23.92 +6.2 416.29 388.92 XCI COMPUTER TECH. 1268.96 +51.33 +4.2 1279.4 1217.63 CMR CONSUMER MORGSTAN 568.34 -0.51 -0.1 569.40 559.37 NF FINANCIAL 623.85 +5.94 +1.0 625.05 612.99 FPP FOREST/PAPER 295.79 +1.39 +0.5 299.32 286.85 HCX HEALTH CARE 880.02 +0.54 +0.1 883.93 870.71 IUX INSURANCE 814.38 -5.40 -0.7 821.62 800.68 IIX INTERNET 438.94 +29.65 +7.2 439.95 409.29 GIN INTERNET GS 330.75 +29.28 +9.7 330.83 301.47 XNG NATURAL GAS 218.62 +1.94 +0.9 219.36 215.90 NWX NETWORKING 1039.66 +99.39 +11 1043.7 940.27 OSX OIL SERVICE 115.75 +0.78 +0.7 117.41 114.15 DRG PHARMACEUTICAL 421.23 -1.66 -0.4 423.74 417.09 RLX RETAIL 797.53 +31.78 +4.2 800.61 765.75 XBD BROKER/DEALER 627.13 +11.82 +1.9 629.84 607.80 Best Regards, J.T.