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To: SpecialK who wrote (34255)	10/27/2000 2:15:53 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

After the Biotechs and Storage Networks have just broken, I think there's still one tech group left to break: Enterprise Software. quote.yahoo.com

To: SpecialK who wrote (34255)	10/27/2000 2:25:27 PM
From: donald sew	Respond to of 42787

SpecialK, Im an idiot when it comes to fundamentals, I'll let Paul and others respond to it. I just look at charts and math formulas. The fundamentals confuse me too much.

To: SpecialK who wrote (34255)	10/27/2000 2:29:20 PM
From: Peace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

SpecialK, SOX is off nearly 50% from its high. When Sox heats up again these companies will fly. In the mean time they certainly look like value stocks. Unlike traditional value plays these companies will soar when semis are back in favor. Peace

To: SpecialK who wrote (34255)	10/27/2000 3:23:19 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

SpecialK, Don & all, My own view of value is when a stock is trading at historically low levels for that stock, based on its current growth rate. That makes GM a buy at 59 at a PE of 6 and MSFT a buy at 58 1/2 at a PE of 32. And that makes sense: GM is a highly cyclical company, while MSFT is like a drug company -- it costs a lot to develop the first product but pennies to produce subsequent ones, and it is not tied to the PC cycle as long as its new product pipeline is promising. I use a service at trouncingthedow.com, which costs $200 a year and with which I have no affiliation. It also works for tech stocks, although the service mainly follows blue chips. It's based on Value Line, so if you get that, you only need the book. If Value Line covers it, you can track it using the theory. I adjust the theory as I see fit, based on technicals and my own view of what I want to hold. It avoids some of the more extreme sell-offs you get with the Motley Fool and other approaches, although it's had a few of its own doozies. A simpler measure of value is of course PEG, which anyone can do. As far as the Dow's 1932 trendline goes, we've been above it for a couple of years and been below it during that time. I was wondering if the return to that line could actually be a return to the norm from the extreme of the 70s (it's possible to put a positive spin on it). Of course, the 1932 trendline itself might have been a correction of the extremes of '29-'32 that ended in the 1960s. I think the Dow's real test here will be ~10,800, the apex of the broken diamond. As far as the Nasdaq goes, it broke out of a falling wedge, so by definition it should rise slowly, so that could support the view of a shift to value. Some thoughts, FWIW. My own view is that you've got to find what fits your mentality the best and stick with it, be it trading, value, growth, small cap, large cap, whatever. I think discipline, not style, is they key to sucess in the stock market, the ability to stay the course when your style is out of favor. However, one of the nice things about the Trouncing the Dow approach is it beat the market for most of the last 5 years, a pretty dismal time for value. Buying IBM in 1993 didn't hurt. Paul