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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary M. Reed who wrote (32026)	10/28/2000 8:00:08 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

Bary: Leave it alone. You are stumbling into the cave of the "mortally wounded" which is my personally held fiefdom. (g) Kidding aside, my definition of a "mortally wounded" company (and of course its stock) is when its debt load starts to inexorably drag it into the bankruptcy courts. Before the mania really got moving, the merest hint of these sorts of problems immediately witnessed a cratering of a stock. But in the current long-running mania environment, these stocks get whacked, but are not put out of their misery. Recognizing this situation saved my bacon back in late 1998. All through the early part of that miserable year, I was pounded whenever I shorted a stock, based on fundamentals that were falling off cliffs. From that point on (until very recently), I concentrated on the "mortally wounded" stocks and it provided a relatively low risk way to quietly make bread and butter profits while awaiting what is now here,.....a well-established bear market. While it may seem counter-intuitive, these bleeders are a safer bet AFTER they have taken major stock price hits than before. Many folks forget that what counts is percent return over time. Balance sheet reading tends to provide the most useful insights (at least at this end), as it tips one off to which companies to place on the watch list. Then, as the debt starts to overwhelm the company, and its stock price starts to get pounded, one can enter the fray. I came close to starting a thread on this topic, but decided that it probably wouldn't have much appeal. I also surmised that it might not be so profitable if it got to be a crowded territory. (g) Best, Earlie