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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (13661)	10/28/2000 2:25:11 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 24042

I've acknowledged that briefing.com has had some good reporting. And, yes, I've read the article you posted by Greg Jones and is in fact where I took the following quote: . Growth in spending, even on optical gear, will probably not be as good as had been expected. And my comment that untruths like this invalidate an entire article still stands. Much of what he says in other parts of the article may, indeed, be true, but if a writer is careless and throws out comments like this, I have to discount all else and look for other sources to validate his points. There is no foundation whatsoever for saying optical spending will not be as good as expected. Major research reports such as those by RHK are upgrading optical projections, not downgrading. NT, GLW, JDSU, and SDLI have all upgraded their projections. Carriers may not have upgraded, but pertinent to our point, they've not downgraded their numbers for optical network spending. Please help me analyze the following: Now, back to JDSU's report. Was it good? Absolutely. But does that change the fact that concerns about demand and competition are now out there? Absolutely not. The Pandora's box has been opened. What "Pandora's box?" Concerns about demand have been manufactured in the press and thoroughly refuted by every company involved except Lucent, and even there they acknowledge the growing market and acknowledge the fact they missed the first phase. As for competition, JDSU and SDLI are thoroughly entrenched in the components' space and continue to grow faster than the industry. Does this indicate someone is taking their market share? No. And anyone claiming they are will have to show proof. The JDSU report was good, and that is better than being bad. Profound. Really profound. Jones may just win a Pulitzer for such brilliance. But as we noted yesterday, the demand slowdown is not expected until next year, and component makers will be the last to see it, so JDSU's past is not necessarily the optical sector's future. Jones and other writers/analysts/commentators may have fabricated a slow-down in demand but no one has come close to proving there's any slowdown in the optical components/networking space. No one. RHK's numbers for components alone show the market growing from $1.7billion in 1999 to $8.7billion in 2003. How that can be interpreted as an industry facing slowing growth next year is beyond me. Does Greg Jones read research reports before writing his articles? These stocks offer great long-term potential, but only at the right price. We are much closer to that price than we were a few weeks ago, but we're probably not there yet. - What's he saying here? That you can buy these stocks if they're beaten down enough? What about all their supposedly slowing markets? Excuse me, folks, but I think we have a mixed message here. If these companies are facing an industry in decline, you don't want to buy them at any price. Now, if our highly-respected Mr. Jones wants to make an argument based on valuations, then that's what he should do --- and I would listen. But to fabricate an argument about slowing carrier spending simply to get a stock down to the valuation he wants before backing up the truck is wrong and destroys his credibility. Not amused. Pat

To: tekboy who wrote (13661)	10/29/2000 12:24:07 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

perfect post to add my thoughts too. Someone just ask me what direction JDSU was going the rest of the year, below is what I sent him. I added a little here and there <<flat, I believe it's dead or trending sideways till the market comes to terms with the slowing in the capex spending. I hardly have any shares left myself. I think it will stick between 70 and 100 (very tradeable not a investment unless you are thinking longer then 12 months) move up to near 100 (maybe 114) if the market recovers and anticipation of the merger, but move back down on capex spending slowdown fears. >> I will add this, JDSU could very well do a QCOM flat line then break out. But I have a problem with the above scenario's time frame. With QCOM, we the anticipation of 3G then 4G, with JDSU what do we have as a catalyst to break it out of the coming sideways trend? Fiber to the curb? I don't think so, unless we have governmental program on a national level or even local to make it happen. So, it may take a longer time then it took QCOM to digest the Big run and to mount the recovery. Greg