follow the money poll (barrons)
By Cash Count, GOP Should Win House by Two
Seats
By Jim McTague
If you've been faithfully following the political polls through their gyrations,
our recommendation is to forget them and instead heed Deep Throat's advice
to Woodward and Bernstein: "Follow the money." As we first noted here on
September 4, in races for the House of Representatives the candidate who
raises the most money wins 95% of the time. Our analysis of July
campaign-finance data predicted that the coming election would yield a House
divided.
Our analysis of the October 16 campaign-finance data, which were compiled
from Federal Election Commission filings by the nonprofit Center for
Responsive Politics, confirms our earlier findings: The next Congress will be
split down the middle along party lines. One difference is that in September,
the contest for control of the House appeared to be a toss-up. It now appears
the GOP has a two-seat edge in maintaining formal control of that chamber.
One caveat: Bundles of additional money could come flooding into campaigns
before November 8, undermining that forecast. Our conclusions seem
obvious to several readers who point out that campaign donations are a ballot
of sorts -- that the candidate with the most donors will garner the most votes.
But in the majority of races in 1998, the amount of funds, not the source, was
the determining factor. A candidate whose money comes entirely from
individuals inside his own state may lose to a candidate whose contributions
come entirely from political-action committees. Thus, in West Virginia's
second Congressional district, the winner should be Democrat James
Humphreys, a lawyer who has spent $5.8 million out of pocket, not Shelley
Moore Capito, a Republican and former teacher who has raised more than
$1 million, most of it in the form of individual contributions. Humphreys, not
your typical fat cat, served on the front lines of the civil-rights struggle and
later went to Washington and worked for Ralph Nader and two former
Democratic senators before opening a West Virginia law firm and amassing a
small fortune by suing asbestos manufacturers.
As we noted, the candidate with a dollar advantage wins 95% of the time --
not 100% of the time. Incumbents with slightly less money than a challenger
have a distinct advantage: They can point to pork-barrel projects. Challengers
riding the coattails of a popular candidate like President Clinton sometimes
upset a better-financed rival. With the presidential race neck-and-neck, there
doesn't appear to be a coattail advantage this time around.
According to our forecast, then, California incumbent Democrats Cal Dooley
and Ellen Tauscher and Republican incumbent James Rogan all will withstand
well-financed challenges.
In Florida's third Congressional district, which includes parts of Jacksonville
and Orlando, we predict that Republican challenger Jennifer Carroll, a retired
Navy officer, will upset four-term Democrat Corrine Brown. In the state's
22nd district, which includes West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale,
Democratic challenger Elaine Bloom, a state legislator with $2 million, will
lose a squeaker to 10-term GOP incumbent Clay Shaw, who also has raised
$2 million. Shaw has done damage to Bloom by highlighting the fact that she is
a former director and major stockholder of Andrx Corp., a generic-drug
manufacturer the Federal Trade Commission accuses of colluding to keep the
price of a heart medicine high. Andrx denies the charge and is fighting the
FTC in court. Bloom had been blaming the GOP for high prescription drug
costs.
In Indiana's fifth district, four-term Republican incumbent Steve Buyer, who
has raised $520,000, will defeat feisty steelworker Gregory Goodnight, a
Democrat with $424,000. In the state's eighth district, Democratic challenger
Paul Perry, an orthopedic surgeon with $1.4 million, will defeat three-term
Republican John Hostettler, who has raised $600,000.
In New York's ninth district, which includes Brooklyn and parts of Queens,
Republican challenger Noach Dear, a city councilman who has raised $1.4
million, will defeat Anthony David Weiner, the first-term Democratic
incumbent. Weiner was an aide to New York Democratic Sen. Chuck
Schumer when Schumer occupied that House seat.
As for the Senate races, the amounts of money have grown so ridiculously
high that one candidate seldom has a clear cash advantage. Besides, Senate
candidates get lots of free television coverage. The one exception this year is
New Jersey Democrat Jon Corzine, a former Wall Streeter who has spent
$50 million on his campaign. We predict he will beat GOP candidate Bob
Franks, a man of modest means. Franks has raised just $4.7 million, which,
as we pointed out, wouldn't get you a decent House seat in West Virginia. |
