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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16180)10/28/2000 12:45:19 PM
From: JMD  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev, re your comment "One of my concerns is the relatively high DOS reflected in almost a full quarter of sales reflected in Accts receivable, that often is an indication of "channel stuffing", meaning that possibly a chunk of the Christmas bulge might already be reflected in the last quarter's top line. That would be unusual in the era of "on time inventories", but why are DOS at close to 90 days?"
I'm assuming that's a typo, i.e., you mean DSO (days sales outstanding) rather than DOS? If so, I think everyone would appreciate further comment on this as a sudden increase in DSO is very, very bad news about 98% of the time.
Citrix, for example, reported a DSO surge about five months ago and claimed that everything was under control, simply a matter of shifting from shrink-wrapped sales to software via electronic delivery, a little channel overlap here and there doncha know, and all would be well in the morning. Well, their CEO/CFO team is now history, their market cap is a sliver of its former self, and shareholders are still wondering what freight train ran them over. DSO is an extremely important metric--can anyone provide further insight to SNDK's situation? regards, mike doyle



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16180)10/28/2000 12:59:58 PM
From: Binx Bolling  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev,

that often is an indication of "channel stuffing", meaning that possibly a chunk of the Christmas bulge might already be reflected in the last quarter's top line.

I thought SNDK did not recognize revenue until end-user purchases product. I am not a CPA, so your step-by-step breakdown of this issue would be helpful.

Jerome, where are you?



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (16180)10/29/2000 9:25:19 AM
From: orkrious  Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev, I have been reviewing the DSO issue and want to clarify a few of the
other issues raised in recent posts.

Another concern is the relatively thin margins, if you take out the
$25 MM in "non operational gross profits, you are left with about $15 MM
in operational profits and that is barely 10% of product sales, not a healty
enough gross margin if this sector proves to have similar cyclicality as the
rest of the industry.


Margins have been improving for the last several quarters. Just looking at the last two years:
Q3 00 32.9% Q3 99 25.5%
Q2 00 31.1% Q2 99 30.7%
Q1 00 30.2% Q1 99 26.2%
Q4 99 27.3% Q4 98 23.5%

In fact, Eli said at the annual meeting that Q1 00 was the first time that they
had profitable results from operation (excluding royalties)

Regarding sales, Eli has guided analysts to 15-20% sequential growth in product sales.
Look at the following table and you will see growth exploding.
Knowing what we know about the embryonic stage of the digital camera market
it is hard to make a case for the growth abating

Product Sequential Sequential YOY YOY
Sales Growth Growth% Growth Growth%
Q3 00 151.8 29.2 23.8% 94.2 163.5%
Q2 00 122.6 25.4 26.1% 80.3 189.8%
Q1 00 97.2 27.3 39.1% 61.3 170.8%
Q4 99 69.9 12.3 21.4% 39.7 131.5%
Q3 99 57.6 15.3 36.2% 33.5 139.0%
Q2 99 42.3 6.4 17.8% 18.8 80.0%
Q1 99 35.9 5.7 18.9% 10.5 41.3%
Q4 98 30.2 6.1 25.3%
Q3 98 24.1 0.6 2.6%
Q2 98 23.5 -1.9 -7.5%

Also note the large sequential percentage increase in Q1 00. I believe Aus has noted
that when it comes to consumers, there is always likely to be an extra "kick"
to sales from people in Q1 who bought a camera for Xmas but discovered they really
need an additional card. These sales hit in Q1. As the retail channel becomes an ever larger
percentage of sales (made possible by the added capacity) the Xmas "bulge" will really be in Q1.

One other thought RE DSO's. This comment was part of the recent Q3 earnings press release
Availability of Flash memory from the three fabs at UMC and from our partnership
with Toshiba improved significantly in the second half of the quarter.


It may be that because of the significant capacity addition, there was a
large "lump" shipped near the end of the Q that shows in A/R.

Given all of the above, a call to IR should allay everyone's fears about a slowdown. It just cannot be happening.

Jay