To: wolfdog2 who wrote (13983 ) 11/27/2000 4:56:51 AM From: phileasfogg Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14266 META Group on xBox and its effect on the game market.metagroup.com Microsoft Bids for Entry Into Game Market November 21, 2000 News Peg: As Sony scrambles to ramp up production of the PlayStation 2, two new combatants in the game console wars are wooing software developers to lay the groundwork for an assault on the market next year. Software giant Microsoft and open-source startup Indrema are busy enticing game developers to write software for their upcoming game consoles, both set to debut next year. The selection and quality of software that results from their efforts will be the determining factor, analysts say, in whether either console earns a spot in the living rooms of the future. Situation Analysis: While at first glance Microsoft's entry into the game market with its Xbox console may seem to have little significance for corporate users, we believe that Xbox will have important long-term implications for the corporate and home pervasive-computing environments, and for organizations marketing into those environments. In the near term, Xbox provides several important innovations. One key point of differentiation is the inclusion of a hard drive, which enables Microsoft to add functionality (e.g., service "agents") and patches, as well as create a more complex gaming and end-user environment that embraces persistence (the ability to have a game extend across multiple game-playing sessions). Not only can game developers provide downloadable demos and fee-based upgrades to games (something no other console system can currently provide), but also the interaction model can be connected to e-business strategies by enabling greater levels of personalization. While it uses a custom operating system, Xbox shares many key programming interfaces with the PC (most notably DirectX), which will simplify the burden for game developers, enabling them to leverage source code, tools, and expertise across two major platforms. In the short term, we believe Microsoft's Xbox will quickly become one of the two dominant gaming systems, along with the Sony PlayStation 2, because of these advantages. By 2003, we believe Microsoft will start applying what it learns from Xbox not only to improvements in the PC user interface, but also (and more importantly) to the design of .Net pervasive-computing devices for the home and office. We also believe that by 2005 enough US homes will have high-speed Internet access to create a market for a new form of advertising combined with computer games. These new "infotainment" marketing tools will range from traditional computer games that simply display the logo of a sponsoring company when they start up to software that is actually integrated with the sponsoring company's Web-based services. For instance, a financial company might provide a stock market game that uses the latest actual stock quotes from its investment service. Microsoft has an important advantage in this market over traditional game companies in its ability to create superior development environments. META Quote: "Sony and the other game manufacturers work with communities of developers who program very 'close to their iron' (hardware). I don't think Sony will ever get Siebel, for instance, to program close to Sony's iron." Peter Burris, META Group analyst, Stamford, Conn. User Action: While Xbox does not signal the demise of the traditional PC, it does foreshadow changes in the client device market that will generally complement the Microsoft .Net initiative and lifestyle computing. While high-speed Internet access from the home and home pervasive computing are still in their infancy, corporate IT groups should develop some consciousness of the new Xbox environment to be ready for the shifts in marketing via the Internet that will become important in the latter half of the decade. META Group analysts Dale Kutnick, Val Sribar, Peter Burris, David Cearley, William Zachmann, and Steve Kleynhans contributed to this article Over to You The Fogg