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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (1126)	10/30/2000 2:16:50 PM
From: BMcV	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 1929

regarding the AFI forecast, here's something from Semiconductor Business News that I saved from Jan 11, 2000: >>60-to-70% of capital spending is going into fab upgrades now, points out ST Microelectronics' Dauvin. "This industry needs at least 25 new fabs a year, and I don't see more than 30 coming on line in 1999 and 2000 combined," he says. "I believe we will start seeing new orders for more new fabs in mid-2000--around June or July--but it takes 25 months to ramp up a brand new fab," he cautions.<< A year or so ago, when the semi's started to report better earnings, they resisted capex spending until they were sure the cycle had in fact turned, and then put most of the money into upgrades. The same article also said estimates of the semi market's growth of 18-25% for 2000 may be too low, as they turned out to be. You follow these things more closely than I do, but what happened to the shortfall of new fab construction that Dauvin is talking about? And doesn't the time lag imply that demand for machines should be strong for a couple of years?