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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EJhonsa who wrote (4078)	10/28/2000 5:23:48 PM
From: engineer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 197272

Eric, If you checked rather than make assumptions, you will find that Qualcomm and Samsung have both had extensive facilties in China since 1996. Qualcomm began working wiht the Chinese in basestation design in 1997, Samsung put in a fully developed test network in 1997 in Shanghai. Both have been operating a "CDMA university" there since that time. As a note, we started teaching Samsung, LGIC, and Hyundai how to build infra in 1991 and they had a complete systemwide (country wide) rollout of CDMA in 1994. they started from scratch and had everything there in 1994. Full deployment with SK Telecom and Shinsegi happened in 1995. In the case of Tiawan, they decided that they wanted to become the leader in world Semiconductor technology, so in the late 80's they undertook a program with the help of the government to take on outside partners and then repatriate alot of silicon valley types to come back and develop the technology. They were very sucessful in this endevor and today are one of the best and largest independent foundries in the world. If you go to Hsinh Chu technology park, you cannot tell if you are in China or in San Jose. It pays to travel once in awhile and find out what the real world is actually like. Not everyone is a backward third world country trying to put shoes on thier poor populations feet. China already has enough head start to build out a bts and handset within the next 2 years. I worry more about the WCDMA FUD which they are being sold. It has not been proven anywhere yet and at this point looks like total vaporware, much less actually working and meeting the expectations of hte design. I worry more that alot of people are being told "Wait for this next round, it will be special". I don;t think it is a quantum change enough that people need to wait. In the case of when Qualcomm defeated GSM/TDMA it was becaue the technology was a quantum leap ahead. It parmetrically changed the way telecom systems were designed. It allowed design features that could not be done otherwise and is why the Chinese dictated to ERICY in Dec 1998 that they "MUST GO CDMA of some form".(posted this on this thread myself from a news article) the current WCDMA camp is trying to create a differntiation which does not exist. WCDM at best will equal CDMA2000. But why risk all that and wait if the terms are worse (royalty), the cost higher, the risk higher and the ability to start now non-existant? Perhaps you are a CDMA2000 supporter, but I think you need to go to China and find out for yourself what they are like. Ramsey goes there a few times a year and is very into what the technology base is like. Take care.

To: EJhonsa who wrote (4078)	10/28/2000 5:35:41 PM
From: lrrp	Respond to of 197272

Thanks to all for opinions and for us non tech types a great debate--sorry its so tense; I'd hate to see this debate on a non moderated thread! <G> Whats your take on (( GPRS is quickly turning into a joke, but that's another story. )) this story; whats the GSM upgrade path to 1x if gprs does not live up to its billings: gsmworld.com How far along is edge? thanks, steve

To: EJhonsa who wrote (4078)	10/28/2000 6:05:36 PM
From: mightylakers	Respond to of 197272

Eric, Here are my thoughts of the seemingly lack of success in Chinese Electronic production, IMO, there are two main reasons. One is money and the other one is the management plus marketing. The money part should go without a saying, the lack of financial strength make it really hard to compete against the foreign giants. As Ramsey has pointed out, the big three used that price war very successfully in defending their market shares. Also you have to considerate the fact that Chinese started their own wireless product much later, so given that late start and the weak strength financially wise. It's not a surprise to see the result here. As for quality wise, I read an article recently, an industry wide survey showed that Chinese made BTS, handsets actually matched up with the big three very well as far as quality concerned. As for management and marketing, Chinese are still a student in that department. The management can be real bad esp. in government controled enterprises. However that part can be improved relatively throughout the cooperation with foreign manufactures. Also another factor you might no think of is China is such a big market, so it may be well enough for a lot of domestic makers. I remember that when I was in China, all we saw are foreign made TV, frige, sound systems, washing machine. The only brand we were interest are Sony, Hitachi, Toshiba, Pioneer etc. Guess what, domestic products are the most dominating force now already. As you can see the main reason that Chinese considering CDMA is that they think by going with a cutting edge technology in a relatively early stage they may not have to repeat their mistakes in GSM. As a side note, I think you are doing a very good job in your DD. However, which is not exactly your fault, is that from what I have read recently you are not a person that really working in this industry therefore your assumption and conclusion can be off the base here and there. You obviously is a very confident person with your efforts in your research. However I do suggest you to be a little more cautious in jumping into the conclusion. There are just way too much to dig out there. Have a nice weekend