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To: XBrit who wrote (32083)	10/28/2000 6:09:27 PM
From: robnhood	Respond to of 436258

<<<I'd predict that TA will once again STOP working when the market finally bottoms and fundamentals are once again relevant. Course that could be years away. >>> The market will bottom when the fundamentals are unbearable.... TA, has always worked, good and bad times. It is one of the few ways to see what the real money is doing, not what they are saying. If and when the market bottoms, it will show up in TA. EG; prices creeping up while fundamentals suck.. Smart money cannot hide from TA. It'll show up on the squiggles. The problem with TA, is reading what you want to see into it. Nonetheless, serious selling and serious buying is hard to hide in a chart. Also nowadays, one must take into consideration that there are a lot of chart chasers, so one must be aware that there can be false starts. Since most of us are very removed from the inside, I don't know what other system one could use. Fundamentals don't mean a hoot most of the time, and basing one's bets on that are equivalent to building your house on quicksand. My 2 cents worth.

To: XBrit who wrote (32083)	10/29/2000 12:03:06 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

As you say, TA works because enough people believe it works and thus an indicator becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. It is a form of religious belief, complete with its own rituals and emotions. Maybe TA has been more reliable in the past few years, but I wouldn't take this to be a reflection of better TA. This reflects a shallower approach to understanding valuations and the deterioration of FA as a reliable method of understanding the market. This, in turn, is a reflection of the change in priorities of corporate America. The primary goal of many, if not not most, companies is not to improve the fundamental strength of their business, but to drive their share prices to higher and higher values. The vision of corporate leaders has grown dimmer and dimmer, and consequently the amount of corporate debt which will never be repaid is growing larger and larger. Of course it seemed as if the internet and technology were real reasons for a meteoric rise in share values. But that is to put the technology before the greed. Truth is, greed and massive credit expansion came first, and the sell came later. The product was irrelevant.