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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (6917)	10/28/2000 6:10:28 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 30051

Zeev - nearly the same question as to Tim Bull market Bear market and neutral evaluations for ATML please. If you have reasons for liking or disliking this company that info is welcome as well. Thanks. BTW I was the one who originally asked you for these scenarios on SSTI and SNDK.

To: mishedlo who wrote (6917)	10/29/2000 8:54:31 AM
From: Logain Ablar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30051

M: The short answer. Mostly from a chart and valuation perspective SSTI looks to be the better investment (risk / reward) in flash over ATML and SNDK. My defination of risk / reward is clearly different than others that post here. The ATML chart looks like it did set a bottom @ $10. I just think SSTI looks better and the earnings and earnings growth per share for a 21 vs. 14 stock. Notice when Jonathan Joseph downgraded SSTI in July time frame it hit the stock but the TA is still positive (barely) when you factor in the sector (semi's) and market (NAZ). (Note SSTI posted a higher low but its hitting resistance and has yet to post a higher high). Right now the semi's look poised to flash a buy signal and SSTI is also tightening up and can move to mid 30's level if NAZ turns and makes a run to 3,600 (if naz craters from here all bets are off). Now in reviewing ATML chart it too can make a run from here but I'll stay with SSTI (money normally flows to the leaders 1st). As for TA and short position I believe the shorts arguement is as DRAM prices drop the semi's like samsung / toshiba / others will be converting the DRAM lines to Flash lines and creating a glut in flash down the road. I don't know enough to determine if this is accurate. The SSTI CEO doesn't see it but sometimes management can be blind to warning signals. Since SSTI is booked through this quarter and next and as of last cc were well on the way to filling up second quarter of next year I'll still stick with the CEO. Note I'm staying away from the semi equipments for now again due to the accounting issue. Its been forgotten but can come up and bite the sector again. When I corresponded with the SEC in May time frame they were to issue clarification. All they did was extend the implementation date. In a week or two I'll recheck on whether they are going to issue clarification or not. I still think companies like NVLS, LTXX, CYMI, ASYT are steals at this level and while they can jump 50% in a week or so on a market turn I'm looking on the chip companies only. Tim