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Technology Stocks : ADC Telecommunications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (1244)	10/29/2000 1:34:46 AM
From: Rainmaker	Respond to of 1944

I have no idea why JDSU is down >50% since July. But I do know that many quality telecom equipment stocks are all down around the same amount (e.g. SCMR, JNPR, etc) and these firms have not reported earnings yet or have they issued any earnings warning. I attribute the downdraft (undeserved) to recent market jitters, perceived spending slowdown, and typical July - October selling in this sector. On this last note, take a look at ADCT's chart dating back to at least 98. Note that all the lows correspond with October. Coincidence? Now, if you believe history repeats like we've been seeing, we can expect a nice run up (~100%) from November to January. JMHO

To: DlphcOracl who wrote (1244)	10/29/2000 5:22:34 AM
From: Mao II	Respond to of 1944

Hi Dlph: U sure may be right. Certainly from a technical perspective, taking nothing else into consideration, ADCT has been a fine short trade since it broke 25. I don't know the reason for all the selling; however, ADCT is not alone, nor was its peak and subsequent decline an isolated event. Here is a 30-week comparative chart of some major telco equip suppliers, both traditional gear and optical/broadband. siliconinvestor.com Technically, for a shorter term trade, I would be looking for a bullish harami stick on Monday. If that doesn't happen, then I would look for a test of Friday lows. On a fundamental basis, I must take past performance as a reasonable guide, if not a guarantee, and that tells me this company will continue to execute well, growing at one of the fastest and most consistently accelerating rates in the sector. M2