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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Logain Ablar who wrote (6926)	10/29/2000 9:27:34 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Tim, it is very dangerous to take the last 10 years as a template for future market actions, IMTO. The last ten years where definitely a secular bull, and as such the 200 DMA of the indices always signaled a point where you want to buy the "then current dip". The last two years also saw in October special conditions (in 1998 the Russian debacle in August and in 1999 the fear of y2k induced liquidity crisis) that forced the fed to pump in money. If we are going into a bear market, the 200 DMA will serve as a point into which you want to sell stock. For the very short term, I am going to follow those indicators that so far this year got me to jump near the then relative bottoms (even the 400 point Naz last run) and that is when the naz tic paint an excessively pessimistic picture, followed by a divergence between the tic and trin. The end of last week did not see either. I also believe that to signal a major new bull move, we will have to have an extreme in these readings (as we did late in May this year which led to almost a 45% advance in the the Naz, from 3050 to 4350). This is not a "sufficient" condition for a bottom, but a "necessary" one. To declare the bear dead, I will have to see a solid bottom followed by some very solid Tic readings reaching the level of +1000. Of course, I'll need to see many other parameters "fall into place" as well. Zeev