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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Shea who wrote (39869)	10/29/2000 11:52:59 AM
From: Rick Buskey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Maybe the bottom has been found--articule: aol.theonlineinvestor.com

To: Kevin Shea who wrote (39869)	10/29/2000 12:35:04 PM
From: ~digs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

I wrote this in a PM but felt it was worth sharing... -------------- Nov to Feb looks favorable... 'But will it end up being a big dead cat bounce for techs?' is what I keep asking myself. Is the general rate of innovation greater than the consumer demand for it... When buying a new TV, is the typical guy going for an HDTV, or is he buying the less expensive bigscreen further down the aisle? Lots of people still choose to dial-up to the net... they don't recognize what they're missing... yet! I can imagine a situation whereby the masses need some time to digest all this new gadgetry. For instance, maybe two years from now PALM's valuation will be better justified? Right now PDAs are still niche market. The average joe simply has no interest in them... yet. I personally would love to see some 'mania' again this year. I prefer to buy long and those gains from last winter were incredible. However, the environment this year is unquestionably different... I want the mania (greed), but my intuition tells me we likely won't go parabolic again for at least the next few years. Meanwhile we're near term oversold by most every measure... and there will probably be a very nice tradable bounce in techs relatively soon. I plan on starting to commit funds at around ~2900 COMPX if we get there. I do think the most amount of people would be caught off guard if after the election... we rallied hard for a few straight months back to 5000 (and possibly beyond). Since the markets are 'anti-conventional wisdom'...I think this too is something to watch out for. Couldn't happen without interest rate cuts and fed priming of money supply tho... IMO. -------------- Kevin, nice looking chart on ERICY... siliconinvestor.com Happy B-day Rande! Go Vikes! :-)

To: Kevin Shea who wrote (39869)	10/29/2000 1:48:42 PM
From: carepedeum2000	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

thanks kevin for the input, as far as going down, i feel jnpr may have more downside than scmr, but if one goes up strong, both will be strong, i think they are tied to the sector for the time being, and i guess while they scare me to death, we really wont know till we get to november to see what the appetite is for the former high flyers, if my memory serves me correctly, there were several periods when the internuts crashed, much like the fibre optics did, only to come roaring back soon after, now we could be in a whole new valuation theme, but there is also the chance this is the same consolidation the internuts had several times and still had went on to reach explosive upsdides, now that may be wishful thinking, but i cant help but think fibre optics will be the first group to go up when this market gets it legs back, which will happen as soon as the market starts focussing on the next rate cut, i would be looking for some real strength in the market around the nov 15th fed meeting, which would be almost assured if we can get the unemployment rate back over 4% this friday, in the meantime, it could get worse before it gets better, or we could just take off, i guess the best strategy is not to pre-guess early, but let the market tell us what its going to do thanks again for your input